October 30, 2009 — Contents


(1)  EDITORIAL:  Nashi goes to Court

(2)  EDITORIAL:  Annals of Putinomics

(3)  EDITORIAL:  Will Russia outlaw Time itself?

(4)  Putin’s Long Knives point towards Georgia

(5)  Russia:  The World’s most Gastronomically Challenged Country

NOTE:  Kim Zigfeld’s latest installment of her Russia column on the Pajamas Media blog condemns the horrifyingly blatant fraud imposed by the Kremlin on the country’s recent “elections.”  And over at the American Thinker, she lets the Putin regime have it for defending American-killer and terrorist-supplier Victor Bout.

6 responses to “October 30, 2009 — Contents

  1. More on scientific concern about the demographic disaster in Russia (as opposed to Michaels agitprop)


    October 29, 2009
    The number of Russians infected with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, has doubled during the past eight years. It’s an alarming trend that runs counter to AIDS-ravaged regions like Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where infection rates dropped during the same eight-year period.

    Health experts attending a three-day AIDS conference in Moscow have urged Russian officials to scrap existing, abstinence-based strategies for fighting the spread of HIV, saying needle-exchange programs and free condom distribution are the only way to prevent the country’s epidemic from entering a devastating new phase.

    Gennady Onishchenko, Russia’s chief public-health officer, has dismissed such suggestions as encouraging illicit behavior. But Western health experts say it’s time for the Russian leadership to seriously address AIDS and the myriad health threats facing the country, in order to help forestall a looming demographic catastrophe.

    Yury Zhigalkin of RFE/RL’s Russian Service spoke to Murray Feshbach, a Russian population expert and senior scholar with the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., about Russia’s demographic crisis.

    RFE/RL: The UN Human Development Report, which was issued earlier this month, projects that by 2050, the Russian population will have dropped from approximately 142 million to somewhere around 110 million. Much of the government’s response has focused on bringing up the birthrate. But is there more to it than that?

    Murray Feshbach: Hardly any emphasis has been placed on mortality, but the numbers are still outrageously high. Heart disease and cancer as a cause of death are three to four times higher per capita than in Western Europe and the United States. They have to reduce that to make up for the continuing decline in the number of births, as we get a drop in the number of women available to have children.

    RFE/RL: What about the impact of infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS? Is there a sense that the government is adequately addressing this issue?

    Feshbach: What I’m concerned with is that there is not enough concern by the [Russian] leadership about the impact of not only HIV/AIDS — which I believe has wrongfully gotten less attention in Russia — but also tuberculosis and hepatitis C.

    All of this is related to injection drug use. And what’s really complicated, which I don’t think anyone has really accounted for, is the enormous number of cases of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis, conventionally drug-resistant tuberculosis, and a big growth in the number of tuberculosis-HIV co-infections.

    RFE/RL: What other health and demographic challenges are being overlooked?

    Feshbach: We have to include smoking. We have to include other risk behavior. We have to include child health and reproductive health. You have a need to stop many other things and start solving these problems, which is not easy, because how do you turn this around?

    How do you get people to drink less, or drink differently? Because, don’t forget, in Russia, they mostly drink “do dna” (to the bottom) and all at once. And when you drink that way, it’s not just the quantity, it also affects the ethanol level in the blood, which then brings other problems.

    The World Heath Organization calculates that the number of liters of 100 percent alcohol begins to get bad if you drink more than 8 liters per capita per year. In Russia, that figure is somewhere between 16 and 18 liters.

    RFE/RL: Can you envision a point at which the Russian nation will simply die out?

    Feshbach: There are projections that by 2075 or 2100, the numbers will be down to 35-50 million. I don’t know. I think it is going to be extremely difficult for them to maintain the economy, because the working-age population is declining by 1 million a year. Whether Russia will turn out to be a failed state…. I don’t think so. But it won’t be easy for it to assert its power, like it has in the past.

  2. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2155rank.html

    HIV/AIDS – adult prevalence rate

    40 Ukraine 1.60 2007 est.
    47 Estonia 1.30 2007 est.
    52 Russia 1.10 2007 est.
    57 World 0.80 2007 est.
    68 United States 0.60 2007 est.
    69 Switzerland 0.60 2007 est.

    • So you’re admitting that Russia’s AIDS infection rate is DOUBLE that of the USA and 50% higher than the world average?


    • Once again retard boy fails to mention that he is using the NOTORIOUSLY unreliable figures of the fascist Russian government.

      Face it Michael, they lie all the time.

      “However, the number of total HIV/AIDS prevalence among the entire population is still difficult to affirm fully. The text contains numerous references to the differences between the Russian official numbers and the estimates made not only by the head of the organization which collects these data, Pokrovskiy, but also by UNAIDS and the World Health Organization, among others. Again much work remains to be assured of the “correct” level. This report finds that the “outside” estimates (including those of Pokrovskiy himself) are the more correct at or about 850,000 to 900,000 or even higher compared with the 300,000 officially reported cases in late 2004.

      The Russian HIV/AIDS figures are frequently internally inconsistent even from official sources, diverge markedly from alternative series such as from UNAIDS, and present major methodological obstacles to determining their scope and coverage. Putting aside the possibility that assertions of higher incidence and prevalence are an effort to acquire more funding (even if in fact more is necessary), the conclusion seems inevitable that the official numbers are understated by a factor of at least 3, and possibly 5 times. At the time of the opening session of an international conference on AIDS-related problems held in Suzdal, Russia, on September 29 – October 1, 2004, Pokrovskiy promulgated a difference of 4 times between the reported figure of 291,154 at the end of August 2004 and the “actual number”; this multiplier yields a figure over
      1,100,000, higher than many, but not all of his and other previous estimates. Sometimes he, Pokrovskiy, asserts a range of one to one-and-one-half million persons with HIV/AIDS. In other instances, the multiplier frequently appears to be just a number picked out of the air, or what the commentator has read or anything else that seems to be convenient (see table 21). For a period of time, almost every morbidity figure was consistently denounced as being understated by a factor of 10 times –not 5 or 7 or 9, but 10. The assertion of 10 times is rarely made at present, but does occasionally appear as a means of saying “we know it is undercounted,” or “more are sick than you could believe,” or even that “it is better to assert a higher number to get the attention of the policymakers” because we really do not know how many exactly are infected but that the real figure clearly is much higher than registered through doctor visits or shown in cause-of-death certification by physicians.

      What is certain is that the actual number of HIV cases is increasing and at a faster rate than registered in the last year or two. Pokrovskiy, in his speech at the Suzdal conference also notes that there has been an increase since last year (unstated but clearly a comparison between September 1, 2004 and September 1, 2003, of 50,000 new cases by September 2004, or a figure of more than one-quarter higher than the total annual registered number (see tables 2, 3, and 5) for all of 2003 (over 39,000). Could this be the beginning of a new explosion (novyy vsplesk) as asserted by some health commentators? Could it be the result of the explosion of children born to HIV-positive mothers (assuming that approximately 20 percent of these children will be HIVpositive as well)? Again through September 1, 2004, according to the data in table 9, the number recorded of 10,802 children is 1,718 more than at the end of 2003, or when extrapolated to the
      end of 2004, roughly equal to 30 percent of the cumulative total as of 31 December 2003 for all previous years. Other potential sources of growth are discussed below”

      Pokrovskiy stipulates that AIDS deaths without any underlying co-infection are rare. This may well be the case, but the published HIV/AIDS mortality figures are so low that other explanations are needed. And if deaths from HIV/AIDS are “underestimated”, which I believe they are, then where are these deaths shown? Where is the source of this undercount? Can we make such an estimate? A first effort toward this measuring this is made. If this hypothesis is correct, then the Russian political, military, economic and social issues leadership should be less sanguine about the problem in their country. 5 They must provide verbal, demonstrable and fiscal measures that need to be undertaken to mitigate the threat to the youth and young adults in their country. 6 Perhaps the confirmation of a principal hypothesis that the Russian mortality
      figures are far short of the comparable figures as given in the American and/or international agency reports, is the most important innovation in our analysis of the Russian data. In contrast, the Ukrainian numbers are comparable to the American and international methodologies. The principal omissions, or rather misplacement of such co-infection mortality numbers, are shown as tuberculosis and/or pneumonia deaths instead of as AIDS deaths in the case of HIV/TB and HIV/pneumonia as the cause of death. For Russia, the difference is more than double if we utilize the official combined HIV/AIDS mortality figures of 4,780 and 9,720 AIDS co-infection deaths, as a minimum, according to the calculations made in this paper. If we add the official number of HIV deaths proper (of 4,002), the total of 13,722 is almost triple the “official” number. In several years, the number of “officially recorded” deaths will increase markedly as
      the decade is completed since the outbreak of HIV initially exploded in Russia.”


  3. From the same article:

    “In reviewing all of the materials tracked and analyzed in this report, several factors that differentiate Russia from the high HIV/AIDS countries must be kept in mind. First, as opposed to the high incidence and mortality countries of Africa and Asia, Russia has a declining population (as does Ukraine); the others all have increasing populations which so far offset the very high mortality levels in these countries.

    Second, as opposed to the other countries, Russia has numerous documented nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, with some exception, regarding a small number of nuclear weapons in South Africa, India, Pakistan and China. In the event of social disarray due to massive increases in morbidity and mortality related to HIV/AIDS, and associated co-infections, can these weapons be safe-guarded properly?
    Third, as opposed to West Europe and North America, the age structure of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Russia is a very young population. In the West, broadly speaking, some 70 percent of the population afflicted with this illness are older, that is, over 30 years of age. In Russia, in contrast, over 80 percent are under 30 years of age. The mortality of young persons now 15 to 39 years of age who will die at 25 to 49 years of age will affect the Russian entity in a devastating manner unless mitigated by use of HAART, prevention or education. But, on the short-term horizon, these solutions do not seem to be adequate for the needs of Russia.”

  4. Andrew – all those “brilliant mathematicians” in the Moscow State Institute – but the rashan government, and the kremlinoids attached to it, can’t count.

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