Russia as Appendage of China

It’s always encouraging to see a Russian courageous enough to speak the truth to power. Alexander Lukin, director of the Center for East Asian and SCO Studies at Moscow State University for International Relations, does so in regard to Russian relations with China in the pages of the Moscow Times. Simply brutal stuff, sure to get him called “traitor” far and wide throughout his own land. Those who say so, of course, are the real enemies of the Russian people.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin held talks with his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao, in Beijing on Tuesday. An official meeting between the two countries’ prime ministers will be held annually under the auspices of Russian-Chinese strategic cooperation and as part of efforts to form a permanent bilateral commission. Issues involving trade and economic cooperation are usually the main focus of these talks. During the latest visit, Putin and Wen signed more than 20 agreements on projects involving bilateral cooperation.

A joint communique was signed announcing the start of cooperation on ballistic missiles and missile delivery vehicles, as well as the establishment of cultural centers. There also were agreements on improving customs controls, developing high-speed train lines in Russia and cooperation between Russian and Chinese special economic zones.

The results of this visit are extremely important because it is precisely in the area of trade and economic cooperation that the greatest number of problems exist. Since early this year, bilateral trade volumes have dropped by more than 35 percent compared with the same period last year. And although China’s trade volume has also dropped with most other countries as a result of the crisis, it is falling at the greatest rate with Russia.

The global economic crisis has further aggravated old problems in bilateral trade and economic relations, leading to the current situation. As a result, it is now clear that the goal set by the leaders of both countries to increase the trade volume to $60 billion to $80 billion by 2010 will not be met. The same is true regarding investment targets. It is possible that Russia will drop from being China’s eighth-largest trading partner to the 15th or 16th largest, falling behind countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, India, the Netherlands, and possibly Britain, Brazil, Thailand and France. That would further decrease the mutual importance of Russia and China as trading partners.

Two additional trends characterize Russian-Chinese trade relations. First, Russia is running a substantial trade deficit that first appeared in 2007. Second, the share of automobiles and equipment in Russian exports has dropped sharply. The trade deficit has decreased somewhat during the crisis because of an even sharper decline in Russian imports compared with exports. (Imports fell by 48.2 percent in the first half of 2009, while exports fell by only 24.1 percent over the same period.) Of course, that hardly constitutes a long-term solution to the problem.

In this sense, the crisis has only underscored the main problems of Russian-Chinese trade and economic cooperation — problems that were well known beforehand and that analysts pointed out long ago. They include:

• Systemic corruption. This problem has spread through all areas of trade, a significant portion of which is carried out by organized criminal groups among the business communities in both countries, as well as by representatives of Russian government agencies such as the border and customs services, the Interior Ministry and regional administrations. In the current system, a significant percentage of all goods crossing the border are never declared, with the result being that both official figures for trade volume and budgetary income from customs fees are correspondingly lower. Russia is battling illegal trade. One measure was the closure in June of Moscow’s Cherkizovsky Market — a main retail outlet for contraband goods. However, these measures are insufficient and haphazard. When the authorities shut down one place where contraband goods are sold, traders quickly find another venue for doing business. It would be far more effective to block the transit of contraband goods across the border, but to do that would require an overhaul of the entire Federal Customs Service.

• The unfavorable investment climate in Russia. Chinese businesspeople complain about Russia’s confusing laws and other regulations, corruption in regional administrations and law enforcement bodies, and underdeveloped infrastructure as evidenced by the lack of decent roads, hotels and even toilets.

• The low quality of vehicles produced by the Russian automobile and truck industry that cannot effectively compete against vehicles available to Chinese buyers and made by other countries.

• Russian businesspeople’s lack of familiarity with the Chinese market and business culture.

• The underdeveloped condition and high prices of Russia’s tourism services. As a result, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Russia has steadily declined since 2004, while the number of Russian tourists visiting China has increased.

Without solutions to these problems, no further development in bilateral trade and economic relations will be possible — even after the crisis. In that case, the only way to raise the trade volume would be through a drastic increase in Russian imports of Chinese goods — but that would only exacerbate other problems. At this stage, the main obstacle on the path to improved trade and economic cooperation is the condition of the Russian economy, and Russian society as a whole. Any further growth in bilateral trade will not be possible without ending corruption, developing an innovative economy and overcoming serious problems with the country’s infrastructure.

Ultimately, most of those problems are essentially political, inasmuch as they require political will from the Russian side to resolve.

Pressure is building to find solutions, and not only for the sake of Russia’s relationship with China but for the development of the country as a whole. Failure to resolve those problems will lead to Russia becoming far more dependent on the Chinese market than China is on Russia. Last year, China became Russia’s third-largest trading partner, accounting for 7.6 percent of Russia’s total foreign trade turnover, while Russia was China’s eighth-largest trading partner, accounting for just 2.2 percent of China’s foreign trade volume. What’s more, Russia will become nothing more than a raw materials appendage of China — just as it has already become for Europe. Worst of all, the character of the Russian people makes solving most of these problems an extremely daunting task.

Advertisements

119 responses to “Russia as Appendage of China

  1. Anyone hazard to guess how long before China annexes Russia’s Far East and Siberia? 10 years, 20 years? Longer or sooner?

    • Americki kurvin sin

      I think California and New Mexico is going to reunitte with Mexico again…
      We Russians ought to arm them to the teeth like we are now doing with the Taliban…Opps

      • You fellas along with your Chinese “partners” are already arming the Taliban.

        California/New Mexico will always be part of the US. For the simple reasons the US will always be richer and stronger than Mexico. The same cannot be said of Rossiya, a nation that is literally dying. The Chinese are a cold, calculated and patient lot. They are planning to take Russian Siberia and Far East, and are waiting for the right opportunity. Chinese military exercises in recent years indicate this.

        http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2007/aug/27/chinasthreattorussia

        As for whores, isn’t that a national past-time for Russian women?

        • Americki kurvin sin

          wrong the majority population in Caifornia and NM is Hispanic…
          After the US dollar ceases to exist as the world reserve currency ,he us economy will colapse entirely since it is solely dependent on importing stuff …
          Then there will be a civil war…

          • …and then Mr. Kurvin Sin will wake up (but just to empty an another vodka bottle).

          • The term “hispanic” is nothing more than a catch-all phrase. If you actually spent some time near the US-Mexican border you would quickly find out that the so-called Hispanics separate themselves into Americans of Mexican decent (usually those who came here legally), hispanic Mexican, native Americans (anyone who was here prior to 1492 and they could be ‘Mexican’ or ‘American’ and unfortunately are at the bottom of the rung for social class), hispanics of spanish decent (those who can trace their ancestry to Spain/Portugal). You would also find that hispanic Mexicans who live South of the border look down on the ‘hispanics’ who live in the United States. In otherwords, there is no clear definition of who is truly hispanic or not. The entire ‘hispanic’ community is divided over amnesty for illigal immagrants, as so many of the legal immegrants wonder why those (who cares about heritage) who come here illegally should get a free pass. P.S. The reason there has been no civil war so far in Mexico, is because all this tremendous influx of ‘hispanics’ into the United States has been a pressure release for Mexico. And those coming here are not all bad, but they often represent the disadvantaged of Mexico. In the United States, they can at least begin to start living like normal human beings; and this includes whether they are legal or not. Unfortunately, the criminal element hitches a ride with the immegrant wave and blackens everyones reputation.

  2. Just a bit longer, probably. 30?

    • 30 years seems about right, though if it happens earlier one shouldn’t be surprised.

      • Americki kurvin sin

        it is not going to happen ,when the biggest market in the world (after 2017 China) teams up with the energy and military superpower which has also a growing and diversivying economy the result will be world dominance because they both along with the Iranisn and others are going to drop the dollar as the reserve currency…
        Thats what you Americans are afraid and thats why you keep bringing these stories up wishing to somehow incite conflicts between the two…
        In the Far East 96% of the population are Russians .And we have nukes also.
        The Chinese are too smart ,they exactly know how great the benefits of ccoperation are and how big the price would be for having trouble with Russia…
        And there is the issue of Taiwan of course ,they see YOU as the number one enemy…

  3. In this unequal alliance, China will soon be the “Big Brother”.

    • Pohlatohlakas

      China will no doubt rectify those unequal Treaties it was imposed on by Russia in the years to come. Russia’s control of the Far East is on borrowed time.

      • Americki kurvin sin

        Yep they will take it despite the fact that we have 15.000 nukes ready to strike hehe…

        • @we have 15.000 nukes ready to strike hehe…

          “we have 14,00 nukes (nuclear warheads of all kinds) but only some of them are ready to strike and most of this is just old and unmaintained rusty junk that we need to scrap hehe…”

          Fixed.

  4. Warren, given Russia’s corruption and mismanagement and all of the dead space they can’t defend with their drunken troops I give it two generations at the most and China will own large swaths of their far east. Hey, a lot of the Russians living there now would bolt to less corrupt overlords than Mosow.

    • Penny

      I suspect many Russians will welcome Chinese tutelage. All that Moscow does is to rape Siberia & Far East’s national resources, and give absolutely nothing back.

      Many Russian women in the Far East are dating, marrying and having children with Chinese men. As Chinese men are more responsible and are not indolent abusive alcoholics. That said Russo-Chinese interracial dating hasn’t reached the level of Russo-Turkish interracial marrying.

      The smaller Russia becomes the more democratic it will be.

  5. A sockpuppet with a new moniker will soon follow.

  6. kurvin sin = in translation = son of a whore.

  7. > Chinese businesspeople complain about Russia’s confusing laws and other regulations

    In other words, Chinese businesspeople lack familiarity with the Russian market and business culture. That’s natural.

    > Russian businesspeople’s lack of familiarity with the Chinese market and business culture.

    And that’s mutual. Le tme tell you: I know many American businessmen trying to do business with China – and boy are they confused!

    Of course my tennis partner has been doing business by selling medical equipment to China and Russia since 1970s. He has made many $millions and has no problem understanding either country enough to make a huge profit.

  8. Warren wrote:
    > Anyone hazard to guess how long before China annexes Russia’s Far East and Siberia? 10 years, 20 years? Longer or sooner?

    A good question, Warren. I know a lot of people who made a similar bet back in the 1960s and lost. Then in the 1970s and lost. And so on… I bet even in the 22nd century there will be russophobes desperate enough to make this losing bet.

    I would gladly make a bet with you for 10 or 20 years, but I know that I won’t be able to find you in 20 years.

  9. > US will always be richer and stronger than Mexico.

    You are forgetting that the only thing that’s keeping USA from a total collapse is the patience with which hte Chinese keep on lending us their money for us to waste on warmongering and paying bonuses to AIG and other Wall Street criminals.

    Very soon the Chinese will be forced to call in our debts, and since we can’t repay – they will have a big garage sale, selling off diferent US states to different countries bit by bit. Texas and California will go to Mexico, Arizona – to Honduras, Colorado to El Salvador. Liechtenstein will buy Pennsylvania, and New England will go to old England, which will then strip it even furhter and sell body parts all over Europe, with Massachusetts going to Estonia.

    • Why would all these countries be prepared to buy pieces of a bankrupt country – because bankruptcy would be the condition to hold that garage sale. Compare it with this: if Russia decides tomorrow to sell the Kaliningrad Oblast to Germany, the answer probably would be thanks but no, thanks, we have already enough trouble with the part of Germany you ruined between 1945 and 1989 not to take this piece of worthless land.

  10. Michael Tal

    I’ll take the bet, I’m still in my 20s, so hopefully I’ll still be around in 20 years time.

    The difference between 60s, 70s and even 90s. Is that China was poor and weak, the Chinese are becoming richer and stronger each year. Russia’s military advantage over China is being eroded or perhaps already vanished.

    The Chinese will conquer/win back Siberia/Far East because their economic survival depends on it.

    The Russian-Chinese strategic alliance is doomed to fail just like the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (1939) or Rappallo Treaty (1922).

    Russia’s future belongs in the West, specifically the EU. But Russia must end its aggressive imperialistic mentality and become a real democracy.

  11. Seriously:

    There was a lot of fear in the USSR back in the 1960s that China was going to take over Siberia and Far East. Now this fear has died down. People now realise that

    1. Siberia is a brutlly cold place, and nobody wants to live there, especially not the warmth-loving Chinese

    2. If China tries to take Russian land by force, Russia will gladly cover the entire compact territory of China with nukes a hundred times over, so that no organic matter will appear there for at least 10 000 years to come.

    Will China one day have so much nuclear superiority as to not to fear Russian nukes? Maybe. But this will not happen for at least 100 years. And given that none of us here will be alive and senility-free even 50 years from now – how shall we ever know?

    And will China first conquer USA? Or will it never have a confrontation with either Russia or USA? We’ll never know.

    • Americki kurvin sin

      They want to create mischief between the two future superpowers (Russia and China)

      Newsflash to all fat,idiotic,gay Americans it is not going to happen

      Say bye bye to the dollar as the reserve currency…

      • Oh come on. Russia is not going to be superpower. It will be a very large European coutry. It is China and USA that will be superpowers. Being militant in their perception of the Wolrd, people in USA see everything in terms of a fight, so everybody here in USA expects this confrontation with China. However, hisotry shows us that th eChinese see the World totally differently than we, Western people. They don’t seem to like wars. Their entire history has been that of trying to preserve peace against warmongering monsters: Mongols, English, Japanese.

        Thus, the Chinese pose no military threat either to USA or Russia.

        All this Warren-type talk is just frustrations at the future, in which USA wil be an economic servant to the Chinese and Russians.

        • So the Chinese are so peaceful and kind-hearted that they will pass on the opportunity to solve all their demographic and resource-related problems, and aren’t interested in becoming the biggest and most powerful country in the world. Yeah Michael Tal, you really have the Chinese figured out.

        • The Chinese have actually fought more wars with Russia than anyone else. The biggest territorial thefts of Chinese lands were the Russian “concessions”.

          You also fail to remember that the Chinese were quite happy to invade their nieghbors such as Korea, Vietnam, India etc.

          Try learning some history Michael, you are making a fool of yourself as usual.

          • Americki kurvin sin

            you are making a fool of yourself if you suggest that the Chinese would take on Russia which has 15.000 nukes ready to strike…
            They know thats impossible,but cooperation will between the two would be a mayor blow to the US interests,thats why you keep on smearing this relationship…

        • Actually, as I’ve been reading recently, Chinese history has been extraordinarily violent, but the Chinese have spent most of their history fighting one another — sort of like Terry Pratchett’s quip about Scottish history being one long struggle of the Scots against their arch-enemies, the Scots. Civil war is a major Chinese past time, and they know how to do it right. The U.S. fought its civil war in 1861-65, killing some 600,000 Americans in the process, but the Chinese fought a civil war in the 1850s and 60s that managed to kill an estimated 20 million.

          The Chinese have also played the role of warmongering monsters themselves at times; the Vietnamese who took to the jungles and resisted French rule in the 20th century were following in the foot steps of their fathers who waged guerrilla warfare for decades against 19th century Chinese invaders. Formosa (Taiwan) was conquered by Qing/Manchu China in the late 18th century, and required a lot of effort on China’s behalf to subdue the native population and plant Chinese colonies. Korea and Japan also have proud traditions of resisting Chinese attempts to rule each. The Tibetans and Uighurs also come to mind as people who might dispute your 2-dimensional “West = murderous imperialists while Rest of the World = Peaceful nature-worshipers” theory.

  12. The scenario of China taking back the “Russian” Far East and Siberia has been circulating for so long simply because it’s such an obvious outcome. When you have an ambitious, economically-thriving, densely-populated and heavily polluted country next to vast territories with huge natural resources and a dying population, it’s not difficult to guess what is going to happen eventually, and I’m sure Russians know this too.

    The Chinese aren’t stupid, they won’t venture into a nuclear war with Russia, they are probably waiting for the right moment to act. And that moment will probably occur when Russia gets into a severe economical or political crisis.

    • Even in an economic or political crisis, it is very easy to turn China into one huge mushroom: just press the Red Button.

      In fact, if Russia is in an economic or political crisis, the Russian rulers will in fact lok forward to a war with China and nuking it: this will distract and unite the Russian populace.

      And Siberia is NOT underpopulated. it is a frozen nothingness. Many scientists in Russia and the West think htat given its geographical and climate conditions, Russia and Siberia are over-poplated:

      http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BC%D1%83_%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%BD%D0%B5_%D0%90%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B0

      Unlike the Westerners, the Chinese are not warmongers in their nature nor are they colonisers. They are businessmen and traders. They have settled all over Asia and control business in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia etc. However, they didn’t militarily occupy any of these countries. There is no need for it. They just settle there and become the best businessmen. That’s what will happen to Siberia: a lot of Chinese traders/ businessmen will settle there and help the economy there. Russia will be perfectly happy. And so will Russians, becasue the authentic Chinese food rocks!

      • Nuclear war is highly unlikely, especially between Russia and China. I don’t think the rest of the world would be very happy about China becoming “one giant mushroom”, since most of the world’s manufacturing is in China. The world needs China, but it doesn’t need Russia.

        The Chinese aren’t colonizers? How about Tibet?

        The most likely scenario is that China will take their territories back gradually and without having to resort to war. They have Russia by the balls anyway, and unlike Europeans the Chinese are more pragmatic and know how to deal with the Russians.

        As for Chinese being welcomed in Russia, you must be living in a parallel universe. Russian culture is inherently xenophobic, barbaric and racist, and Russians have always had trouble living with other cultures on equal terms. Add to that the discrimination faced by the Chinese in Russia, and the frequent racist murders directed against Chinese nationals, and you should realize that the Chinese aren’t going to put up with that forever. They will eventually have to tame and castrate the Russian bear.

        • Well, we Jews weren’t particularly well-treated in England, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Ukraine, Russia in the beginning. But now Jews own Russia, and there is no violence towards us. We are now part of the “in-crowd”.

          • Haha, good one. Is there any discrimination of Jews in any of the countries you mentioned nowadays? And if you’re talking about history, pogroms and persecution in Russia have no rival apart from Nazi Geramny. And even nowadays anti-Semitism in Russia is rampant (have a look at virtually all Russian commenters on this blog) and Russia has more neo-Nazis than the rest of the world combined. I don’t know what kind of Jew you are, if you stick for anti-semites, racists and neo-Nazis.

          • @Well, we Jews weren’t particularly well-treated in England, Germany, Poland

            Actually, “you Jews” were particularly well-treated in Poland.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Poland

            • Jews were well-treated in medieval Poland for centuries, but as royal power disintegrated in the 18th century, Jewish communities who had enjoyed royal protection were forced to turn to the wealthier aristocratic estates for protection against rabid priests and superstitious peasants, resulting in Jews being associated in Poles’ minds with aristocratic mis-rule. This laid the foundations for 19th and 20th century Polish anti-Semitism, which was rarely as violent as Russian anti-Semitism but exclusionary. The historian Jan T. Gross mentioned in his description of the Soviet invasion of eastern Poland during the September, 1939 campaign that the Russian reputation for violent anti-Semitism was so great that Jews fled the Soviet occupation zone for the Nazi zone well into 1940.

          • Jews were certanly better treated in England than they were in Russia.

            Benjamin Disraeli springs to mind.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Disraeli

            Jews have a long and prosperous (except in the medieval period under the Plantaganet kings, but hey, they were French/Norman and foreign occupiers after all) history in England, particularly after both Cromwell and the restoration of Charles II.

            No massive, state sponsored anti-Jewish pogroms like those comitted by the Russian state and its Slavic ultra nationalists during the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries.

            Quite the opposite in fact.

            “With Catholic Emancipation in 1829, the hopes of the Jews rose high; and the first step toward a similar alleviation in their case was taken in 1830 when William Huskisson presented a petition signed by 2,000 merchants and others of Liverpool. This was immediately followed by a bill presented by R. Grant on April 15 of that year which was destined to engage the Parliament in one form or another for the next thirty years.

            In 1837, Queen Victoria knighted Moses Haim Montefiore; four years later, Isaac Lyon Goldsmid was made baronet, the first Jew to receive a hereditary title. The first Jewish Lord Mayor of London, Sir David Salomons, was elected in 1855, followed by the 1858 emancipation of the Jews. On July 26, 1858, Lionel de Rothschild was finally allowed to sit in the British House of Commons when the law restricting the oath of office to Christians was changed; Benjamin Disraeli, a baptised Christian of Jewish parentage, was already an MP.

            In 1874, Disraeli became Prime Minister having earlier been Chancellor of the Exchequer. In 1884 Nathan Mayer Rothschild, 1st Baron Rothschild became the first Jewish member of the British House of Lords; again Disraeli was already a member. (Though born a Jew, Disraeli’s baptism as a child qualified him as eligible for political aspirations, presenting no restrictions regarding a mandated Christian oath of office.)

            By 1882, 46,000 Jews lived in England and, by 1890, Jewish emancipation was complete in every walk of life. Since 1858, Parliament has never been without Jewish members.”

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_England

            Compare this with the Russian pogroms against Jews of the same period.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Russia

            The systematic policy of discrimination banned Jews from rural areas and towns of fewer than ten thousand people, even within the Pale, assuring the slow death of many shtetls. In 1887, the quotas placed on the number of Jews allowed into secondary and higher education were tightened down to 10% within the Pale, 5% outside the Pale, except Moscow and Saint Petersburg, held at 3%. Strict restrictions prohibited Jews from practicing many professions. In 1886, an Edict of Expulsion was enforced on Jews of Kiev. In 1891, most Jews were expelled from Moscow (except few deemed useful) and a newly built synagogue was closed by the city’s authorities headed by the Tsar’s brother. Tsar Alexander III refused to curtail repressive practices and reportedly noted: “But we must never forget that the Jews have crucified our Master and have shed his precious blood.”[7] The restrictions placed on education, traditionally highly valued in Jewish communities, resulted in ambition to excel over the peers and increased emigration rates.
            In 1892, new measures banned Jewish participation in local elections despite their large numbers in many towns of the Pale. “The Town Regulations prohibited Jews from the right to elect or be elected to town Dumas. Only a small number of Jews were allowed to be a town Dumas members, through appointment by special committees.

  13. > The most likely scenario is that China will take their territories back

    When was Siberia a Chinese territory? Given that Siberia is no good for agriculture, why would hte Chinese need it?

  14. Part of the so-called “Russian Far East” used to be Chinese. As for Siberia proper, it may not have agriculture, but is has huge natural resources, and is sparsely populated. China could easily colonize the entire area within one generation.

  15. A., good points and what I’ve been saying as well. China with 5 or 6 times the population, an insatiable appetite for oil and commodities, fiscal discipline, a large standing army and bordering Russia will take advantage of the corruption and demographics and own Russia’s far east in time. And, most likely a shot won’t be fired.

    You’ve got to love the total ignorance of not knowing that most of Russia’s oil and gas production shifted to Siberia where the largest reserves are. I hope you were laughing as hard as I was at “the warmth-loving Chinese” passing on Siberian oil reserves because it is too cold there.

    Geez.

    • I wonder what all of them “the warmth-loving (Han) Chinese” are now doing in Tibet?

      @And Siberia is NOT underpopulated.

      Educate yourself about all the empty villages and ghost towns (that were once populated).

      In 2004:

      Khabarovsk Krai Governor Viktor Ishaev added that the most acute threat of depopulation is in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, where the Russian population doesn’t exceed 8 million, while 50 times that number of Chinese live on the other side of the Amur River. “One should understand that nature does not tolerate a vacuum. If one side doesn’t fill it, the other will.”

      ACCELERATED DEPOPULATION THREATENS RUSSIA’S EXISTENCE
      http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/2546

      • Robert, you nailed it. Got to love it, since when did nothern China fall into the tropics.

        We are not getting pro-Pootie trolls worthy of us.

      • @And Siberia is NOT underpopulated.
        > Educate yourself about all the empty villages and ghost towns (that were once populated).

        Exactly my point: the Siberian climate/soil are so inhospitable that nobody want to live there voluntarily, and many of those, who live there, leave.

        How can a person live in -40 degree winters? What for, if they can move to, say, Voronezh, Rostov or Moscow?

        Do you know what the popuilation of Alaska is/ A couple of hundred thousands, that’s all. Siberia is the same.

        I assure you that any Chinese person will choose California over Alaska/Siberia. I certainly chose California over New York/Moscow.

  16. > while 50 times that number of Chinese live on the other side of the Amur River

    Actually, the number of Chinese, who live south of the Amur River is osmehting like 1.3 billion, 150 times that number. All Chinese live on the other side of the Amur River. It’s much warmer there.

    Still, if there are 8 million Russians in Siberia, then this is 40 times the number of Americans living in Alaska.

  17. Look, Robert, there are 152 million people living in Russia, 4 million more than in 1991. The largest population ever. If life in Siberia were good, more people would move there.

    Not only are there 10 million illegal Russian-speaking immigrants to Russia, but the Russian birth rate is now higher than the death rate. So, population-wise Russia is doing fine, much better than most other European countries.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_demographics

    Government measures to halt the demographic crisis was a key subject of Vladimir Putin’s 2006 state of the nation address. The population decline has continued to slow through 2008 and the first eight months of 2009 due to declining death rates and increasing birth rates, bringing population growth to near stagnation.[6][3]

    In September 2009, the Ministry of Health and Social Development reported that Russia recorded natural population growth for the first time in 15 years, with 1,000 more births than deaths in August.

    The number of Russians living in poverty has halved since the economic crisis following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and the improving economy had a positive impact on the country’s low birth rate, as it rose from its lowest point at 8.27 births per 1000 people in 1999 to a rate of 12.1 per 1000 in 2008. 2007 marked the highest growth in birth rate that the country had seen in 25 years, and 2008 marked the highest total birth rate since 1991.

    At the same time, Russia experiences a constant flow of immigration. On average, 200,000 legal immigrants enter the country every year; about half are ethnic Russians from the other republics of the former Soviet Union. In addition, There are an estimated 10 million illegal immigrants from the ex-Soviet states in Russia.[20] There is a significant inflow of ethnic Georgians, Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Tajiks, and Ukrainians into big Russian cities.
    ——————————

    Look at the demographics graph:

    It clearly shows that the graph almost stopped going down back in 2006 and went flat for 2 years. Now it is growing. The first and all higher order derivatives are positive, so, barring a war or a similar calamity, the Russian population is going to grow s a convex function, constantly accelerating.

    If there are 10 illegal immigrants from the fellow ex-Russian/Soviet republics (all of them perfect Russian-speakers), then the actual population of Russia is 10 million more than people think. Thus, around 152 million. So, the real population of the Russian Federation is actually larger than it was when it was in the Soviet times (a maximum of 148 million) when all migrants from the other Soviet republics, living in Russia, were counted as perfectly legal. The population of Russia is by far the greatest it has ever been in history: by 4 million higher than in 1991.

    If this trend continues, soon all residents of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia etc will be living in Russia, thus returning to Russia the peoples that it lost in the break-up of the USSR.

    • @Look, Robert, there are 152 million people living in Russia, 4 million more than in 1991. The largest population ever.

      Meanwhile, in my dimension:

      Russia’s population has fallen by 6.6 million since 1993, despite the influx of millions of immigrants, a United Nations report said Monday, and by 2025 the country could lose a further 11 million people.

      http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/10/04/general-eu-russia-falling-population_6964469.html

      The population, now [2006] about 143 million, has been falling since the collapse of the Soviet Union, trimmed by emigration, rising death rates and declining birth rates. The government and demographers have predicted more downward pressure, fueled by increasing rates of HIV infection. Taken together, all those factors could push the population below 100 million by 2050.

      http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/10/world/europe/10iht-russia.html

      Across Russia rural communities are dying. The most recent census found that of Russia’s 155,000 villages, 13,000 have been deserted, and another 35,000 have seen their populations dwindle to fewer than 10 inhabitants.

      Underlying this change is the dramatic decline of Russia’s population. In the decade after 1992 Russia’s population fell from 149 million to 144 million [in 2004], and the problem is getting worse.

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/3984951.stm

      President Vladimir Putin, in his first state of the nation address last July [of 2000], warned Russia could lose another 22 million citizens over the next 15 years and degenerate from superpower to Third World status.

      “We are facing the serious threat of turning into a decaying nation,” said Putin as he instructed his government to take urgent charge.

      But a degenerating health care system straining under budget constraints, drug and alcohol abuse, and low living standards — especially among the vulnerable elderly — has fueled a dramatic population decline.

      The government’s top statistician said he expected Russia to shrink by 10 million people in the next 15 years and continue imploding throughout the first half of this century.

      http://www.aegis.com/news/afp/2001/AF010252.html

      • And then of course, the decline of the ethnic Russian population is much, MUCH worse than this of the country’s population in general.

        Why? It’s simple: Muslim ethnic minorities are actually having many children and they live much longer (not only compared to the ethnic Russian still-majority). Even the number of Chechens in Chechnya rose sharply since the Soviet times, despite the war-related mass deaths and emigration (or at least in official statistics which could be falsified). And then there are of course millions of immigrants.

        While the ethnic Russians are only dying-off. In massive, staggering numbers. Not only because of having so very few children (and so many abortions), but also because of their very high mortality rate (mostly more or less alcohol-related).

        So, how bad is this, even overally (counting all people in Russia, not only the vanishing ethnic Russians)?

        Well, your “the largest ever” was about right, except it’s not “population” but “population decline” (in the whole history of Russia and including the Civil War and WWII):

        “Russia has faced this problem at other times during the last century. The first bout of depopulation lasted from 1917 to 1923, and was caused by the upheavals that transformed the Russian Empire into the Soviet Union. The next drop took place between 1933 and 1934, when the country’s population fell by nearly 2 million—or almost 2 percent—as a result of Stalin’s war against the “kulaks” in his forced collectivization of Soviet agriculture. And then, between 1941 and 1946, Russia’s population plummeted by more than 13 million through the cataclysms and catastrophes of World War II.

        The current Russian depopulation—which began in 1992 and shows no signs of abating—was, like the previous episodes, also precipitated by events of momentous political significance: the final dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of Communist Party rule. But it differs in three important respects. First, it is by far the longest period of population decline in modern Russian history, having persisted for over twice as long as the decline that followed the Bolshevik Revolution, and well over three times as long as the terrifying depopulation Russia experienced during and immediately after World War II.

        (…)

        A comparison dramatizes what is happening in Russia. Between 1976 and 1991, the last sixteen years of Soviet power, the country recorded 36 million births. In the sixteen post-Communist years of 1992–2007, there were just 22.3 million, a drop in childbearing of nearly 40 percent from one era to the next. On the other side of the life cycle, a total of 24.6 million deaths were recorded between 1976 and 1991, while in the first sixteen years of the post-Communist period the Russian Federation tallied 34.7 million deaths, a rise of just over 40 percent. The symmetry is striking: in the last sixteen years of the Communist era, births exceeded deaths in Russia by 11.4 million; in the first sixteen years of the post-Soviet era, deaths exceeded births by 12.4 million.

        The Russian Federation is by no means the only country to have registered population decline during the past two decades. In fact, 11 of the 19 countries making up Western Europe reported some annual population declines during the Cold War era. On the whole, however, these population dips tended to be brief and slight in magnitude. (Italy’s “depopulation,” for example, was limited to just one year—1986—and entailed a decline of fewer than 4,000 persons.) Moreover, the population declines in these cases were primarily a consequence of migration trends: either emigration abroad in search of opportunity (Ireland, Portugal), or release of foreign “guest workers” during recessions or cyclical downturns in the domestic economy (most of the rest). Only in a few Western European countries (Austria, Denmark, Germany, the United Kingdom) did negative natural increase ever feature as a contributing factor in a year-on-year population decline. In all but Germany, such bouts of negative natural increase proved to be temporary and relatively muffled.

        So where, given these daunting facts, is the Russian Federation headed demographically in the years and decades ahead? Two of the world’s leading demographic institutions—the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) and the U.S. Bureau of the Census—have tried to answer this question by a series of projections based upon what their analysts believe to be plausible assumptions about Russia’s future fertility, mortality, and migration patterns.

        Both organizations’ projections trace a continuing downward course for the Russian Federation’s population over the generation ahead. As of mid-year 2005, Russia’s estimated population was around 143 million. UNPD projections for the year 2025 range from a high of about 136 million to a low of about 121 million; for the year 2030, they range from 133 million to 115 million. The Census Bureau’s projections for the Russian Federation’s population in 2025 and 2030 are 128 million and 124 million, respectively.

        If these projections turn out to be relatively accurate—admittedly, a big “if” for any long-range demographic projection—the Russian Federation will have experienced over thirty years of continuous demographic decline by 2025, and the better part of four decades of depopulation by 2030. Russia’s population would then have dropped by about 20 million between 1990 and 2025, and Russia would have fallen from the world’s sixth to the twelfth most populous country. In relative terms, that would amount to almost as dramatic a demographic drop as the one Russia suffered during World War II. In absolute terms, it would actually be somewhat greater in magnitude.”

        http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/2009%20-%20Spring/full-Eberstadt.html

        In the meantime, population of the USA (more than 307 million people right now) is rising even faster than this of Russia is shrinking.

        (In 2006 it was “only” 300 million – up from 200 million in 1967.)

      • > Russia’s population has fallen by 6.6 million since 1993. The population, now [2006] about 143 million

        There are 10 million illegal Russian-speaking immigrants from the other republics of the Soviet Union/Russian Empire. That makes it a total of 152 million, the highest number ever. OK, the number of ethnic Russians, who were born in Russia, is lower; but the number of ethnic Russians from other republics, Ukrainians, Belarusans, Georgians, Moldovans, Armenians etc more than compensates. What can be better? They all are Russian-speakers and will in no time become real Russians through and through, just as Ukrainians, Belarusans, Jews, Georgians, Moldovans, Armenians etc have done for centuries.

        And now with the number of births being ahead of deaths, even the decline in native “Russians” is reversed.

        We were talking about the threat that Russia will lose population, become under-populated and lose its land to China. Ain’t happening, is it? Russia’s population is higher than ever.

        Ethnic Rusisans will simply learn to see more Russian citizens of other ethnicities, just as white Americans have gradually learned to live with Ameircans of other races. If I am not mistaken, here in California the white people are about to be in the minority, with Mexican-Americans (many also illegal emigrants) pulling ahead. Specialists predict that pretty soon Spanish-speakers will be in the majority in many-many American states.

        Is that bad for USA or Russia?

        • Illegal immigrants are part of the population. They’re just not citiziens.

          Once again,

          Russia’s population has fallen by 6.6 million since 1993, despite the influx of millions of immigrants, a United Nations report said Monday, and by 2025 the country could lose a further 11 million people.

          Now keep reading until you understand.

          • pop·u·la·tion (ppy-lshn)
            n.
            1.
            a. All of the people inhabiting a specified area.
            b. The total number of such people.
            2. The total number of inhabitants constituting a particular race, class, or group in a specified area.
            3. The act or process of furnishing with inhabitants.
            4. Ecology All the organisms that constitute a specific group or occur in a specified habitat.
            5. Statistics The set of individuals, items, or data from which a statistical sample is taken. Also called universe.

            The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

            And welcome to the real world. Be my guest.

        • You are able to read aren’t you Michael?

          “My thanks to the Financial Times’ Tony Barber for linking to this UNDP report describing Russia’s situation. As Barber points out in his own summary, it isn’t pretty.

          The report describes the stark reality of a country whose population is falling fast, to a considerable extent because of rampant alcohol abuse among men, who on average are dying before they make it to 60 years old. “Short life expectancy is the main feature of this crisis, though by no means its only feature. The birth rate is too low, the population is shrinking and ageing, and Russia is on the threshold of rapid loss of able-bodied population, which will be accompanied by a growing demographic burden per able-bodied individual. The number of potential mothers is starting to decline and the country needs to host large flows of immigrants,” the report says.

          Since 1992, the natural decrease of Russia’s population has amounted to a staggering 12.3m people. This has been compensated to some degree by the arrival of 5.7m immigrants. But many are ethnic Russians from former Soviet republics, and the source is drying up. Overall, Russia had 142m people at the start of 2008, compared with 148.6m in 1993. By 2025, the figure will almost certainly fall below 140m and could be as low as 128m.

          The implications for Russia’s economy are enormous. The authors cite forecasts from Rosstat, the national statistics agency, that Russia’s working age population will decline by 14m between now and 2025. As Vladimir Putin said three years ago when he was president, the demographic emergency is “the most acute problem facing Russia today”.

          On the subject of migration, the study’s authors point out that the supply of politically acceptable Russophones is running out. In the Baltic States, higher living standards would presumably encourage Russophones to remain in those countries or to go the wider European Union, while in Ukraine and presumably Belarus low living standards don’t compensate for the ongoing assimilation of ethnic Russians to the titular nationality, as has happened in independent Ukraine. Indeed, the authors point out that there is no reason Russia can’t become a source of emigrants, not only to a Poland that offers higher wages than Russia but to the wider European Union. As for the birth rate, the authors argue that substantial changes in everything from popular culture to government funding would be needed.”

          http://demographymatters.blogspot.com/search?q=russia

          From the UNDP report itself:

          “5.1. Migration growth has
          compensated about half
          of natural population
          decrease in Russia
          The mid-1990s were marked by an unprecedented
          upsurge of migratory population gains. Of
          total 6.2 million people, who migrated to Russia
          in 19 years after the population census of 1989,
          about 60% arrived in the 6-year period from 1993
          to 1998 (Figure 5.1).
          The volume of registered net migration decreased
          almost threefold at the end of 1990s
          and was under 100,000 per year in 2003-2004.
          A low point of 99,000 in 2003 was followed by
          steady growth from 2004 to a level of 240,000
          in 2007.
          The large flow of immigrants in 1993-1998
          did much to compensate Russia’s natural decrease
          of population, which started in 1992.
          Migration in these 6 years gave 3.6 out of 5.7
          million total migratory gain in 1992-2007, replenishing nearly half (46%) of natural loss of
          population. This upsurge was less due to growth
          of new arrivals than to decrease of the number
          of people quitting Russia. The number of immigrants jumped to 1.2 million in 1994 due to
          clear economic advantages of Russia compared
          with other CIS countries, but declined rapidly after fighting broke out in Chechnya.

          http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/nationalreports/europethecis/russia/NHDR_Russia_2008_Eng.pdf

          And:

          “Stark truths of Russia’s demographic crisis exposed in UN report
          October 6, 2009 10:02am
          Everyone interested in modern Russia should read a report out this week on the nation’s deepening demographic crisis. It’s published by the United Nations Development Programme, but it’s written by a team of Russian academic experts, so no one can say it’s tainted with bias.

          The report describes the stark reality of a country whose population is falling fast, to a considerable extent because of rampant alcohol abuse among men, who on average are dying before they make it to 60 years old. “Short life expectancy is the main feature of this crisis, though by no means its only feature. The birth rate is too low, the population is shrinking and ageing, and Russia is on the threshold of rapid loss of able-bodied population, which will be accompanied by a growing demographic burden per able-bodied individual. The number of potential mothers is starting to decline and the country needs to host large flows of immigrants,” the report says.

          Since 1992, the natural decrease of Russia’s population has amounted to a staggering 12.3m people. This has been compensated to some degree by the arrival of 5.7m immigrants. But many are ethnic Russians from former Soviet republics, and the source is drying up. Overall, Russia had 142m people at the start of 2008, compared with 148.6m in 1993. By 2025, the figure will almost certainly fall below 140m and could be as low as 128m.

          The implications for Russia’s economy are enormous. The authors cite forecasts from Rosstat, the national statistics agency, that Russia’s working age population will decline by 14m between now and 2025. As Vladimir Putin said three years ago when he was president, the demographic emergency is “the most acute problem facing Russia today”.

          Alcohol abuse has a very long history indeed in Russia. Some of the first western European visitors to the ancient Russian heartland were astonished to see Russians of all types, high and low, male and female, drinking themselves into oblivion. Over time, the Russian (and Soviet) authorities came to depend heavily on revenues from alcohol sales, especially of vodka. This deterred serious state-led anti-alcohol campaigns.

          But as I remember well from several years I spent in Moscow in the mid-1980s, Mikhail Gorbachev, the reformist Soviet leader, tried to change all this, cracking down on alcohol production and sales in a way that earned him the nickname “mineral water secretary”, as opposed to “general secretary”, of the Soviet communist party. The UN report’s authors say Gorbachev’s 1985-87 campaign had a substantial impact, raising life expectancy for men by 3.1 years and for women by 1.3 years.

          Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, is now trying to do something similar, calling alcoholism a “national disaster”. The Gorbachev experience suggests that Medvedev may achieve some short-term success, but not much in the longer run.

          In the meantime, the really interesting question is this: Where exactly is Russia going to get all its desperately needed immigrants from? China? That may raise some delicate issues in Russia’s vast, underpopulated far eastern regions, which formed part of Imperial China until the Tsarist annexations of the 19th century”

          http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2009/10/stark-truths-of-russias-demographic-crisis-exposed-in-un-report/

          Sorry, but the UNDP report (written in large part by Russian experts I might add) DIRECTLY contradicts your opinion in all matters.

        • Btw,

          @There are 10 million illegal Russian-speaking immigrants from the other republics of the Soviet Union/Russian Empire. That makes it a total of 152 million, the highest number ever.

          In my dimension:

          Since 1992, some 5.5 million immigrants have come to Russia

          http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7971719.stm

          (5 April 2009 )

          UN: Russia should reform immigration practices
          http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091005/ap_on_re_eu/eu_russia_falling_population

          Russia’s population has fallen by 6.6 million since 1993, despite the influx of millions of immigrants, according to a U.N. report released last year, and by 2025 the country could lose a further 11 million people.

          Recent Kremlin efforts to reward women for having more babies have caused a surge in the birth rate, the U.N. has said, but won’t make much difference in the long term.

          Population levels in many developed countries have stagnated and are expected to fall by 2025, but Russia’s population, currently around 142 million, has been in retreat since 1992. Russia’s mortality rate is among the highest in the developed world, with average life expectancy for males at barely 60 year.

          For reasons that are not fully understood, Russians suffer very high levels of cardiovascular disease. But most experts blame the country’s overall high death rate on alcohol. Drinking has been linked to everything from liver disease to Russia’s high number of murders, suicides and fatal accidents.

          (Oct 5, 2009)

          Which means that (in my non-bizarro universe) Russia’s population would fell 12 million (actual death-of-the-nation figures, actually much worse for the ethnic Russians) – if not the influx of [five] millions of immigrants.

          So it declined “only” over 6 million. Many of them simply killed themselves or each other.

          (GREAT SUCCESS!)

          And you are either even more stupid than I thought you could be, or you’re actually totally insane.

    • @Look, Robert, there are 152 million people living in Russia

      Look, Micheael, what is the source for this idiotic claim you keep repeating?

    • Funny, you claim that there are 152 million people living in Russia, and you give yourself a link to a website stating that on January 1st 2009 there were only 141 million people living in Russia. You claim that population growth is now much better than 10 years ago, yet the website you are referring to, doenst say that. So, to make my comment on your post short, I’ll just repeat the link of the website which clearly states that you are wrong:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_demographics

    • Two basic facts about demographics:
      1) one or a few years of a higher birth rate don’t make a trend. It is important to know if the average age women get children did go up or not. It could very well be that they are the result of women catching up under better economic conditions: women who were unable to get children because of economic reasons, now could get children when it is still biologically possible. Once this effect, which could take a few years, is away, we will see if there is really an upward trend in birth rates or not. You can only compare births by women of the same age group to know if there is really an upward trend.

      2) People who are not born, don’t get children. This means that lower birth rates during the nineties will again have an effect during the next 10 to 15 years: less children born then means less women to have children now – and the same for the next generation untill this equals out over a few generations. Look at the population pyramid of any European country, you will see a dent in the pyramid because of WWI and WWII, and you see the same effect a generation later. But: during war time, most people who die are men, there are still more women who can (and who will) have children. This population decline happened during peace time, which means less boys AND girls born, and less women to have children later on.

  18. > In the meantime, population of the USA (more than 307 million people right now) is rising even faster

    See, you are happy about USA becoming predominantly Latino. QED

  19. > USA: in 2006 it was “only” 300 million – up from 200 million in 1967.

    And today there are 152 million, up from 127 million in 1967:

    Look at:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

    Population growth is fastest among minorities (taken as a group), and according to the United States Census Bureau’s estimation for 2005, 45% of American children under the age of 5 are minorities.[15] In 2007, the nation’s minority population reached 102.5 million.[16] A year before, the minority population totaled 100.7 million. Hispanic and Latino Americans accounted for almost half (1.4 million) of the national population growth of 2.9 million between July 1, 2005, and July 1, 2006.[17]

    The Pew Hispanic Center and the Center for Immigration Studies have predicted that the large majority of this growth will be due to future immigrants and their descendants.

    A report in August 2008[37] from the U.S. Census Bureau projects that by 2042 non-Hispanic whites will no longer make up the majority of the population. This is a revision of earlier projections that this would occur in 2050. Today, non-Hispanic whites make up about 66% of the population. This is expected to fall to 46% in 2050. The report foresees the Hispanic population rising from 15% today to 30% by 2050. Today, African Americans make up 14% of the population, in 2050 they are projected to comprise 15%. Asian Americans make up 5% of the population and are expected to make up 9% in 2050.

    Of the nation’s children in 2050, 62% are expected to have a minority ethnicity, up from 44% today.
    ————

    And this doesn’t count tens of millions of ILLEGAL immigrants from Latin America.

    > While the ethnic Russians are only dying-off.

    Surely, the percentage of ethnic Russians among newly-born in Russia is much higher than the percentage of white Americans among newly-born in USA, where it is only 50%. Moreover, if you look at the entire white population, whites will continue to be in the huge majority in Russia and their numbers will grow. And with millions of ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Armenians and other whites emigrating to Russia, whites will continue to be the vast majority; unlike USA, where they will be in the minority soon.

    But what’s wrong with USA being a non-white country? Nothing. Diversity is great.

    Do the math: the total number of Non-Hispanic whites in USA in 2050 will be same as today. But millions of new white immigrants are to arrive between now and year 2050. Since the total stays the same, the death rate among white Americans will be much higher than the birth rate.

    I am sure these Latinos don’t bother you, do they? Viva America: Mexico del Norte! (I am already learning Spanish – the near-future language of California)

    > the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) and the U.S. Bureau of the Census—have tried to answer this question by a series of projections based upon what their analysts believe to be plausible assumptions about Russia’s future fertility, mortality, and migration patterns.

    That was before Putin’s reforms have resulted in the births exceeding deaths. All these ‘projections” are now out of the window: nothing more than your unfulfilled wet dreams:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_demographics

    Government measures to halt the demographic crisis was a key subject of Vladimir Putin’s 2006 state of the nation address. The population decline has continued to slow through 2008 and the first eight months of 2009 due to declining death rates and increasing birth rates, bringing population growth to near stagnation.[6][3]

    In September 2009, the Ministry of Health and Social Development reported that Russia recorded natural population growth for the first time in 15 years, with 1,000 more births than deaths in August.

  20. > pop·u·la·tion (ppy-lshn) – All of the people inhabiting a specified area.

    Exactly my ponit. The population of Russia – all of the people inhabiting Russian territory – is 152 million, which is 35 million higher than in 1960 and 4 million higher than even in 1991. Highest ever.

    • Sigh.

      Population: 141,903,979 (January 1, 2009)
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

      Population:
      140,041,247 (July 2009 est.)
      https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html

      ONCE again:

      Russia’s population has fallen by 6.6 million since 1993, despite the influx of millions of immigrants, a United Nations report said Monday, and by 2025 the country could lose a further 11 million people.
      http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/10/04/general-eu-russia-falling-population_6964469.html

      I swear, you must be really a visitor from an alternative universe.

      • > Population: 140,041,247

        No, this figure reflects the number of LEGAL residents. There are 10 more million people inhabiting (permanently living and working in) Russia:

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_demographics

        In addition, there are an estimated 10 million illegal immigrants from the ex-Soviet states in Russia.[20] There is a significant inflow of ethnic Georgians, Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Tajiks, and Ukrainians into big Russian cities.

        There 10 million of extra inhabitants are not included in the 140,041,247 figure.

        • Wrong Michael.

          As usual.

          The Russian experts writing for the UNDP report on Russia’s demographic disaster state that illegal immigrants are only between 4 and 5 million of the total population of Russia.

          Try reading a report by experts in the field.

          http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/nationalreports/europethecis/russia/NHDR_Russia_2008_Eng.pdf

        • Ah, back to your favourite tactic. What your source ACTUALLY said:

          “At the same time, Russia experiences a constant flow of immigration. On average, 200,000 legal immigrants enter the country every year; about half are ethnic Russians from the other republics of the former Soviet Union. In addition, There are an estimated 10 million illegal immigrants from the ex-Soviet states in Russia.[20] here is a significant inflow of ethnic Georgians, Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Tajiks, and Ukrainians into big Russian cities, something that is viewed very unfavorably by many citizens and even gives rise to nationalist sentiments.[21] Some Chinese flee the overpopulation and birth control regulations of their home country and settle in the Far East and in southern Siberia. Many immigrant ethnic groups have much higher birth rates than native Russians, further shifting the balance.”

          Not “in addition” to “the 140,041,247 figure”, as your selective (mis)quoting-out-of-context you thought would suggest.

          Btw, the source for this (“[20]”) was this IHR article:

          “Under the new rules, which set a quota of six million foreign workers for 2007, the authorities are carrying out strict checks on the estimated 10 million to 12 million foreigners who are already working in Russia, most of them illegally.”

          Didn’t say “estimated” by whom, but this doesn’t even matter. Because hey, what else the article said? Pay attention now:

          “The population of Russia is dropping by about 700,000 a year and has fallen below 143 million. The population decline would be even more catastrophic were it not for immigration.”

          The article, which you YOURSELF just used as your source:

          http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/world/europe/15iht-migrate.4211072.html

          Though I must say I love this make-believe world of yours. I guess I’m beginning to understand how a mind of a “Russophile” like you works, it’s stupidity meeting complete fantasy meeting denial.

          Like here, but with stupidity instead of escapism:

  21. > Now keep reading until you understand.

    I understand completely:

    “The population decline has continued to slow through 2008 and the first eight months of 2009 due to declining death rates and increasing birth rates, bringing population growth to near stagnation. In September 2009, the Ministry of Health and Social Development reported that Russia recorded natural population growth.”

    What’s better: facts or “predictions” of some beurocrats, who havn’t even seen the fact that in 2008 and 2009 the number of birth is the same as the number of deaths, plus immigration is booming on top of that.

  22. And speaking of population, growth – it is the anathema to most countries on the Planet, including China and much of overpopulated areas of Europe, where the city spral has replaced nature.

    I am not sure that the fast growth of USA population (due to Hispanic imigration) is a good thing. Lready New York City and LA are way overpopulated. More increase will mean environmental horrors. Soon it will take 4 hours to get from one end of the LA area to the other, all of it while driving in dark brown smog and coughing for the dear life.

    • @More increase will mean environmental horrors.

      Hey, how about the “environmental horrors” during the (allegedly unsuccessful) attempts to depopulate the Republic of Chechnya?
      http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/chechnya.htm

      And why do you think Russians polluted their country any less then the Chinese did?

      @What’s better: facts or “predictions” of some beurocrats, who havn’t even seen the fact that in 2008 and 2009 the number of birth is the same as the number of deaths, plus immigration is booming on top of that.

      …while the ethnic Russians in Russia continue getting extinct.

      Btw, Putin 2000 being “some beurocrat” and the “population decline has continued to slow through 2008 and the first eight months of 2009” (GREAT SUCCESS!) being in your universe “the fact that in 2008 and 2009 the number of birth is the same as the number of deaths”. Well, shine on you crazy diamond.

      • What a demagogue you are. How come you omitted the word “stagnation”:

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_stagnation
        [Economic] stagnation, often called simply stagnation, is a prolonged period of slow [economic] growth
        ———-

        Which part of the text:

        “…through 2008 and the first eight months of 2009 …bringing population growth to near stagnation.[6][3] In September 2009, Russia recorded natural population growth for the first time in 15 years”

        don’t you understand?

        • growth for the first time in fifteen years is not necessarily a trend or even a reversal of a trend. Just read my remarks about postponing child birth by women.

          • But 2 years – 2007 to 2009 – do make a trend.

            • In demographics they don’t. To assess birth rates, you have to count with reproductive cohorts. Raising birth rates during one two or even five years could be the result of a real growht, or could be the result of a change in behavioural patterns, catching up with lost years, or a government birth policy which possibly results over only a brief period of time. We will only know over a few years. In my country there is a growing birth rate since mid nineties. Only now demographers are starting to talk about a possible trend. Maybe you should just take a simple introduction course on the matter.

    • That would be an interesting remark if not for the fact that the Russian population is very unequally divided. In fact, Moscow is the largest European city, so coping wqith the horrors of an overpopulation in urban areas is something which is not unknown for Russia, as well as coping with depopulating rural areas.

      • Russian rural areas are too populated as is. The percentage of Russians living in rural areas is much larger than in North America, Japan, Korea, and Western Europe. Goven that the Russian climate and soil are terrible for agriculture, most peasants will have to move to cities and large towns.

        • Interestingly, the Global Warming may be good for Russia. Countries like USA, with warmer climate and mos tpeople living near the ocean, the Global Warming is terrible, especially because the coastal areas will drown. But Russia is a cold land with few people living on the coasts. A warming trend is good for it.

          • Not really, Russian scientists are extremely concerned about global warming. The fear is that most of Russia will turn into deserts or swamp.

  23. So what happens when Russia runs out of Central Asian slave labor? Who will do all the work? Certainly not the Russians, who have historically been used to having everything handed out to them and exploiting the labor and resources of other nations.

    • What happens? Well, it’s already happening.

      Despite all the warnings, including from the UN and even their own so-called government (warning itself), from the article our mentally challenged friend Michael Tal tried to misquote in his usual fashion:

      The population of Russia is dropping by about 700,000 a year and has fallen below 143 million. The population decline would be even more catastrophic were it not for immigration.

      Migrants from former Soviet republics, most from the Caucasus and Central Asia, are the main source of cheap labor in Russia. They do menial jobs for low pay, forming the backbone of the work force in the construction industry and food and clothing markets.

      Under the new regulations, businesses that employ people without proper documents face fines of up to 800,000 rubles, or about $30,000, and a three-month trading suspension.

      Last year, Putin ordered new measures to curtail the use of foreign workers, especially at markets, saying that they were crowding out native Russian producers and retailers.

      In Khabarovsk, on the Chinese border, Chinese market vendors have been packing up their unsold goods and heading back home. One clothing trader, Li Chen Tsza, said he had marked down his prices by 50 percent to get rid of his inventory.

      “They told us that from the New Year we won’t be able to sell our goods here anymore,” he said in televised comments.

      The deputy director of the Federal Migration Service, Vyacheslav Postavnin, insisted that the authorities’ only aim was to legalize migrant labor.

      “For us, the main thing is that neither Russians nor Russian citizens who employ foreigners should violate migration law,” he said in an interview published Monday in the government daily Rossiiskaya Gazeta.

      The official also dismissed fears that a fall in the number of foreign workers would present a problem for employers.

      “At the end of the day, they can hire Russian citizens,” he said.

      http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/world/europe/15iht-migrate.4211072.html

      Now, good people with nothing better to do (aka Russophobe conspiracy by foreign apes, according to an avarage Russian TV zombie like this “I’m Russian” fellow) are trying to convince the Russia’s mafia government to stop being completely retarded and try to save what they call their country:

      According to a 2007 U.N. report, in 1950 what is now the Russian Federation had the world’s fourth-largest population. By 2007, the report said, Russia ranked ninth globally, behind Bangladesh and Nigeria. By 2050, the U.N. estimates, Russia will rank 15th, with a population smaller than that of Vietnam.

      Monday’s report notes that population decline in general reduces a country’s “strength and dynamism.” The report adds that the effects of depopulation will be magnified in Russia because of its huge territory.

      An influx of immigrants over the past 16 years has helped soften the impact of Russians dying young and having fewer children. But the report says that many of these immigrants were ethnic Russians returning to their homeland from other former Soviet states, and this is mostly over.

      Meanwhile, many skilled Russians could be lured abroad in the coming decades, the report says, as labor shortages develop in Western Europe, where a shrinking pool of working-age people is expected to drive up wages for the highly educated.

      To cope with this demographic crisis, the U.N. report recommends that the government overhaul the health system to provide more efficient care, while encouraging lifestyle changes to reduce the number of deaths related to alcohol consumption.

      A study published in June in The Lancet medical journal found that drinking has caused more than half of deaths among Russians aged 15 to 54 since the 1991 Soviet collapse.

      President Dmitry Medvedev began an effort to restrict beer sales in early September, citing the effect of alcohol on public health.

      But the move is politically risky, especially in a country where alcohol in general and vodka in particular plays such an important cultural role. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s efforts to restrict alcohol sales were deeply unpopular.

      Russia can help compensate for fewer births and high death rates, the report said, by encouraging immigration. It estimated that the country will need to attract about 15 million migrants by 2025 to fill vacant jobs.

      But the report notes that migration can also lead to tensions. It says the country will have to make a major effort to assimilate migrants, who today face discrimination, exploitation and sometimes violence.

      http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j11XO83g3FRNnnH12pC88ve7TbBAD9B4M2R00

  24. Robert,

    While you may take pride in your ability to blindly cut-and-paste huge blocks of text without explaining the purpose or logic, I have no idea what your point is and which of my main points, taken from Wikipedia, you find not to be true. Let me list these main points and ask you to point out which facts, if any, are incorrect and why:

    1. 2007 marked the highest growth in birth rate that the country had seen in 25 years, and 2008 marked the highest total birth rate since 1991. The population decline has continued to slow through 2008 and the first eight months of 2009 due to declining death rates and increasing birth rates, bringing population change to near stagnation.[6][3] In September 2009, Russia recorded natural population growth for the first time in 15 years, with 1,000 more births than deaths in August.[15]

    2. As can be seen from the graph in Wikipedia, the population of Russia has virtually stopped decreasing around year 2006:

    3. As can be seen from the graph above and from all other demographic statistics, the birth rate has been dramatically rising in recent years, the death rate has been dramatically dropping, the two are now almost identical, and, using curve extrapolation, we can see that the birth rate will by outpacing the death rate more and more in the coming months and years.

    4. The population figure of about 141 million reflects LEGAL residents and does not include ILLEGAL residents.

    5. There are estimated to be 10 to 12 million illegal residents. There is a significant inflow of ethnic Georgians, Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Tajiks, and Ukrainians into big Russian cities.

    6. Therefore, if we included the 10 to 12 million of illegal immigrants, the population of Russia would be 151 to 153 million, which is by 3 to 5 million higher than the highest that it was prior to the 21st century.

    Which of the above 6 statements do you find to be incorrect?

    • Dear Michael Tal (aka Photophobe),

      You are now officially a complete retard. Congratulations!

      @Which of the above 6 statements do you find to be incorrect?

      2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

      As for 1: GREAT SUCCESS! Althrough UN experts disagree – as I already wrote, “Recent Kremlin efforts to reward women for having more babies have caused a surge in the birth rate, the report said, but won’t make much difference in the long term.” Why? Because the Russians continue to die.

      Now go and read my “huge blocks of text” (including from your own sources that you either didn’t read at all, misunderstood because you are a total idiot, or pretend the latter because you are in denial or just trolling now).

      And regarding an “ability to blindly cut-and-paste”, you’re the guy who repeatedly pasted a bunch of links that didn’t even work (because yes, I clicked them).

      And I also always check the sources that the amatours at the Wikipedia are using, including this onefrom IHR/NYT above from you, the “[20]” one – http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/world/europe/15iht-migrate.4211072.html again).

      And the purpose of doing it is clear, it is for you to read it (a part is cited, and the rest is linked so you can continue reading). But you didn’t even see the pictures I posted for you in another thread. Well, I guess I spent too much time trying to debate a retard, instead of just making fun of you. No more! This was the last I ever wrote to you in a serious way. Cheers.

      • Robert,

        I hate to bother you with facts and human logic, but could you please explain what exactly you find not true in the facts given in “2, 3, 4, 5, 6”? Which numbers are incorrect?

        For example, you find 5 to be incorrect:

        “5. There are estimated to be 10 to 12 million illegal residents.”

        If not 10 to 12 million, then how many illegal residents are there?

        Or do you disagree with these facts on religious grounds?

        • According to the UNDP report, around 4 to 5 million, though the actual number fluctuates depending on seasonal factors (many work in the agricultural sector).

          http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/nationalreports/europethecis/russia/NHDR_Russia_2008_Eng.pdf

          Try reading other peoples posts.

        • Dear sadly/hilariously retarded Photophobe person,

          As I already wrote several times already, by citing your own(!) original source, it was actually:

          “the estimated 10 million to 12 million foreigners who are already working in Russia, most of them illegally”.

          (Not explained estimated by whom; the UN estimate is more than twice lower.)

          and not

          “5. There are estimated to be 10 to 12 million illegal residents.” (learn2read, plzkthx)

          The source which you wrote about twice for some reason (and as usual, completely out of context) – the Wikipedia editors’ “[2o]” source. Posting the direct link for the 4th time: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/world/europe/15iht-migrate.4211072.html

          And then, the same original source wrote:

          “Critics warn that the crackdown will only encourage xenophobic sentiment, fuel inflation and accelerate the country’s population decline.

          The population of Russia is dropping by about 700,000 a year and has fallen below 143 million. The population decline would be even more catastrophic were it not for immigration.”

          And of course the illegal immigrants are counted in the population figures – even if they’re not Russian citiziens. For example, hundreds of Georgian traders and workers selectively rounded-up and deported in cargo planes in 2006 (two of them died en route) were part of Russia’s population, but now they’re not anymore.

          And the so-called “Russian citizien” Ossetian separatist rebels are part of the population of Georgia within her international borders. (Scratch this if you share the viewpoint of Russia and Nicaragua, and replace with the still remaining, not-yet “cleansed” ethnic Georgians constituting part of population of the totally-independent country of South Ossetia.)

          And now, give me any source for your idiotic figure of “152 million”. (I mean other then “taken from your stupid ass”.)

  25. OK, Robert, let’s go one issue at a time.

    You wrote:

    > And of course the illegal immigrants are counted in the population figures – even if they’re not Russian citizens.

    Why would you say that? Where did you get this idea that the official poplation figures for Russia include illegal aliens? Please provide references/documentation.

    Is counting illegal aliens as part of the population a Russian peculiarity, or do American demographers and census takersalso include the illegal aliens in the US population numbers? You wrote:

    > population of the USA (more than 307 million people right now)

    Is that including all the illegal aliens? How many of these 307 million are illegal aliens? How were they counted?

  26. Robert wrote:
    > The population of Russia is dropping by about 700,000 a year

    Stop lying. Here are the official data:

    http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b09_00/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d07/8-0.htm

    По оценке, численность постоянного населения Российской Федерации на 1 июля 2009г. составила 141,9 млн.человек и с начала года уменьшилась на 50,6 тыс.человек, или на 0,04%

    The number of permanent populace of the Russian Federation on July 1 2009 was 141.9 million. Since the beginning of the year, this number has reduced by 50 600.
    —————–

    Even if we forget that since July, the situation has further improved and the number of births exceeded deaths in September 2009 for the first time in many years, 50 000 per 6 months mean 100 000 per year, and not 700 000 as you claim. Why did you lie?

    Moreover, notice the term “постоянного населения” (permanent populace). Are you saying that illegal aliens are considered “permanent populace”?

  27. @Stop lying. Here are the official data:

    :D

    It was a DIRECT QUOTE from YOUR OWN SOURCE – the source that you’ve used TWICE.

    Quote 1:

    Michael Tal // October 19, 2009 at 3:03 am
    (….)
    There are an estimated 10 million illegal immigrants from the ex-Soviet states in Russia.[20]

    Quote 2:

    Michael Tal // October 19, 2009 at 12:12 pm
    (…)
    In addition, there are an estimated 10 million illegal immigrants from the ex-Soviet states in Russia.[20]

    And your “[20]” is http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/15/world/europe/15iht-migrate.4211072.html (the link that I am posting for the 5th time).

    And in this link, your own source, you’ll get:

    “The population of Russia is dropping by about 700,000 a year and has fallen below 143 million. The population decline would be even more catastrophic were it not for immigration.”

    That’s the whole paragraph. Nothing taken out of context. That’s what it’s written there. That’s from this authoritative source of yours for the figure of “the estimated 10 million to 12 million foreigners who are already working in Russia, most of them illegally”.

    YOU COMPLETE IDIOT.

    And now, I’m still waiting for a source on the figure of the population of 152 million. Any source. A single one.

    Protip: I actually even googled for “Russia” and “population” and “152 million”.

    http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=russia+population+“152+million”

    Well, apparently not a single Enslish-person person in this dimension agrees with your crazy estimate.

    But maybe this was in Russian and in “the official date”. So come on, go and show me you’re at least a semi-sane person from my universe.

    And not something such as in this story:
    http://www.somethingawful.com/d/news/insidious-beast-ghosts.php

    • And “English-speaking person”.

      Now, I’ll cite you the UN (UNDP Russia)report. Instead of “the official data” (do/did you believe also in the Soviet “official data”?). This “huge block of text” was not taken by me out of context:

      “Russia has been aff ected by natural decrease of population
      since 1992: shrinkage has totaled 12.3 million persons
      over 16 years. Th is phenomenon has been partly
      compensated by immigration (5.7 million persons), but
      by the beginning of 2008 the Russian population had
      declined to 142 million from 148.6 million at the beginning
      of 1993, a reduction of 6.6 million persons.”

      This and more at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/nationalreports/europethecis/russia/NHDR_Russia_2008_Eng.pdf

      • And now, from the report about the depopulation of Russia.

        Not just the death of the Russian nation (ethnic Russians) and how much the immigration can provide an alternative for the lack of Russians in Russia. But rather about the increasing lack of any people in Russia in general (that is outside Moscow and other major European Russian cities and of course the Caucasian Muslim areas) and in the Russia’s Asian countryside in particular:

        “Th is is not the fi rst time that Russia has suff ered loss
        of population. Th ere were four such instances in the
        20th century. However, the fi rst three instances were
        related to social and military disasters, and the population
        loss stopped as soon as these disasters came to
        an end. Generally, the trend was towards population
        growth and the demographic situation seemed quite
        favorable. But this appearance was deceptive. Longterm
        evolutionary processes were at work – complicated
        by political, social and military disturbances, –
        which led inevitably to the depopulation, which began
        in 1992.
        (…)
        Moscow is the key player
        in Russian migration. The
        smaller the number of migrants
        who come to Russia,
        the larger the share of them who settle in Moscow.
        Most regions in the European part of the country can
        only compensate outflow of their population to big
        cities and, to some extent, compensate depopulation,
        when inflow of international immigrants is high. Low
        international immigration and decline of the western
        drift mean that migrant flows are only sufficient for
        large cities and a few attractive regions (all located in
        the Western part of the country).
        (…)
        The result has been a new polarization of Russia’s
        migration space. The whole territory of the
        European North, Eastern Siberia and the Far East
        have been losing population. This marks the end
        of a long-term colonization trend, which has lasted
        for many decades and even centuries. In those regions,
        where migration-related outflow was most
        intense, the existing system of settlements has
        been transformed through disappearance of many
        villages and even small towns (so-called “urbantype
        villages”).
        (…)
        Government, which frequently resettled labor
        populations at its discretion during the Soviet
        decades, has not come properly to terms with the
        new situation. The Soviet model of management
        functioned (though not always efficiently) under
        conditions of a planned economy with cheap
        labor and a workforce that had no effective civil
        rights. But it is inoperable in new conditions of
        depopulation, lack of labor resources and development
        of a genuine market for labor.
        (…)
        Internal and external migration are interconnected
        and this link deserves serious attention.
        Demand for labor in large cities is the driving
        force for migration in modern Russia. It stimulates
        migration both within regions and between
        different parts of the country. By meeting part of
        the demand for labor in fast-developing regions
        of markets European Russia, external migration
        puts limits on the western drift which is leading
        to depopulation of the Asian part of the country.”

        Whole paragraphs, nothing taken out of context.

        And about the reason why the nation is dying – no surprises here (including the Russian regime simply ignoring the poblem):

        “In particular, it is unclear why mortality due to alcohol
        poisoning is not included in the list of priority tasks [of the Ministry of Health Care and Social Development].
        The omission is strange because, in terms of number
        of victims, alcohol poisoning competes with mortality
        due to road accidents (Figure 3.15), but the omission is
        particularly strange when we take note that alcohol poisoning
        (which usually means consumption of deathful
        quantity of alcohol) is an indicator of the general alcoholization
        of the population, which makes the greatest
        overall contribution to Russia’s (predominantly male)
        adult hyper-mortality – including mortality due to road
        traffic accidents. There is no mention whatsoever of alcoholism
        among the ills to be combated for reduction of
        mortality. “Development of measures for reduction of
        alcohol consumption” is only mentioned as one of several
        objectives for improvement of public health.”
        (…)
        The tasks of the second epidemiological
        transition require increase of health care funding
        and radical improvement of the health care
        system. But what is most important at the current
        stage is positive changes in behavior and
        life style of the majority of population. These
        changes are happening in Russia at very slow
        rates (if at all), but they are essential for success
        in the struggle with ill health and early mortality.
        For instance, there has been no success
        in overcoming the disastrous effects of alcohol
        abuse on health and mortality in Russia. Abuse
        of alcohol is one of the main causes of high
        mortality in middle-aged men and an absolute
        impediment to human development in Russian
        society.”

  28. > That’s what it’s written there

    Robert, I don’t really care what was written “THERE” long time ago. I don’t care about outdated articles from almost 3 years ago. I care about the current facts. Whatever I want to quote, I quote. Just because the Wiki page, that I quote, cites hundreds of references, i don’t have to believe everything they wrote 3 years ago, is still right today. I assure you that I have not posted the figure “700,000” anywhere in this thread, because this might have been true for 2006 (or not) but is a definite falsehood in 2009. The current number is 100,000 or even less.

    We are going in circles here: I present to you the latest data from 2008 and 2009 which how well Russia is doing. You present old data from 3 or more years ago and try to pass it as today’s truth.

    But you have been clinging to this 700,000 number and quoted 4 times:

    > Posting the direct link for the 4th time

    Given that you have posted this claim of 700,000 four times, you must believe that it is true. So, let me ask you to clarify:

    1. Is your position that the Russian population is dropping by 700 000 or by 100 000? And I am referring to THE LAST 6 to 12 months, not 10 years ago and not 3 years ago.

    Also:

    2. Are you still sticking to your claim that illegal aliens are considered “permanent populace” and are included in the latest number of 141.9 million:

    “The number of permanent populace of the Russian Federation on July 1 2009 was 141.9 million.”

    Where is your reference?

    • @Robert, I don’t really care what was written “THERE” long time ago.

      This was your source, you poor idiot. “Care”to read to your own sources, agree to them, only then show them.

      I’m still waiting for any source foryour “152 million” figure. One will be enough. Any, really. Besides your ass.

  29. > This and more at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/nationalreports/europethecis/russia

    Excuse me, but wasn’t this written around 2005 and, as everything here says, is totally outdated:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_demographics

    Government measures to halt the demographic crisis was a key subject of Vladimir Putin’s 2006 state of the nation address. The population decline has continued to slow through 2008 and the first eight months of 2009 due to declining death rates and increasing birth rates, bringing population growth to near stagnation.[6][3]

    In September 2009, the Ministry of Health and Social Development reported that Russia recorded natural population growth for the first time in 15 years.
    ———————————-

    Why do you purposefully try to hide the modern Russian success in clouds of quotes from the gone past?

    To summarise our argument:

    I keep on saying: “Russia is doing great today in 2009”

    And you are saying: “Russia was doing badly in 2005 or 2006.”

    Well, these two are not mutually contradictory, and I am willing to accept your claim if you accept mine.

    • Yeah, Wikipedia

      -using sources such as “[20]”, which you now say you “don’t care” about because it’s few years old, but for which you cared for greatly just yesterday (before I actually forced you to see it by quoting it and posting the direct link no less than 5 times)-

      is a better source than the latest Human Development Report. Yeah.

      Now go and edit the article for the population of “152 million (biggest ever)”, because you are an expert too like the rest of Wikipedia enthusiasts.

      http://encyclopediadramatica.com/Propaganda

      OK, enough of this. I’m not wasting any of more time on you, believe in what you want to believe.

    • @Excuse me, but wasn’t this written around 2005 and, as everything here says, is totally outdated: [link to Wikipedia]

      National Human Development Report
      Russian Federation
      2008
      Russia Facing Demographic Challenges

      Moscow
      2009

      The National Human Development Report 2008 for the Russian Federation has been prepared by a team of Russian
      experts and consultants. The analysis and policy recommendations in this Report do not necessarily reflect the views of
      the UN system and the institutions by which the experts and consultants are employed.

      Chief authors:
      Anatoly G. Vishnevsky, Dr.Sc. (Economics), Director of
      the Institute of Demography at the State University –
      Higher School of Economics
      Prof. Sergei N. Bobylev, Dr.Sc. (Economics), Department
      of Economics at Lomonosov Moscow State
      University

      Authors:
      Anatoly G. Vishnevsky, Dr.Sc. (Economics), Director of
      the Institute of Demography at the State University –
      Higher School of Economics
      – Chapters 1, 2
      Sergei V. Zakharov, Ph.D. (Economics), Deputy Director
      of the Institute of Demography at the State University
      – Higher School of Economics
      – Chapter 2
      Evgeny M. Andreev, Ph.D. (Physics and Mathematics),
      Research Scientist, Max Planck Institute for
      Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
      – Chapter 3
      Ekaterina A. Kvasha, Ph.D. (Economics), Senior
      Researcher at the Institute of Demography at the
      State University – Higher School of Economics
      – Chapter 3
      Tatiana L. Kharkova, Ph.D. (Economics), Senior
      Researcher at the Institute of Demography at the
      State University – Higher School of Economics
      – Chapter 3
      Nikita V. Mkrtchan, Ph.D. (Geography), Senior Staff
      Scientist at the Institute of Demography at the State
      University – Higher School of Economics
      – Chapter 4
      Zhanna A. Zayonchkovskaya, Ph.D. (Economic
      Geography), Chief of the Laboratory of Migration,
      Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy
      of Sciences; Chief Research Officer at the Institute of
      Demography at the State University – Higher School
      of Economics
      – Chapter 5
      Elena V. Tyuryukanova, Ph.D. (Economics), Director
      of the Migration Research Center; Chief Research
      Officer at the Laboratory of Migration Research at the
      Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population,
      Russian Academy of Sciences
      – Chapter 5
      Mikhail E. Dmitriev, Dr.Sc. (Economics), President of
      the Center for Strategic Research Foundation
      – Chapters 6, 7
      Tatiana M. Maleva, Ph.D. (Economics), DBA, Director of
      the Independent Institute for Social Policy
      – Chapters 6, 7
      Oxana V. Sinyavskaya, Ph.D. (Economics), Deputy
      Director of the Independent Institute for Social
      Policy
      – Chapters 6, 7
      Mark L. Agranovich, Ph.D. (Economics), Head of the
      Centre of Monitoring and Statistics of Education;
      Executive Director of the Interregional Association
      for Monitoring and Statistics of Education
      – Chapter 8
      Alexander L. Lindenbraten, Dr.Sc. (Medicine), Deputy
      Director on Scientific Work at the State National
      Research Studies Institute of Public Health, Russian
      Academy of Medical Sciences
      – Chapter 9
      Prof. Natalia V. Zubarevich, Dr.Sc. (Geography),
      Department of Geography at Lomonosov Moscow
      State University; Head of Regional Programs at the
      Independent Institute for Social Policy
      – Chapter 10
      Ekaterina M. Scherbakova, Ph.D. (Economics), Senior
      Researcher at the Institute for Economic Forecasting,
      Russian Academy of Sciences; Senior Researcher at
      the Institute of Demography at the State University –
      Higher School of Economics
      – Contributions to Chapters 6, 7, 8

    • So Mr retarded Michael Tal, are you a complete retard, and lyinng MF, YES YOU ARE.

      The UNDP report was published THIS YEAR.

      YOU ARE AN INGNORANT RETARDED MENTAL PIGMY!!

      Try reading the effing report you moron, it is written by RUSSIANS.

      • Oh, come on. You require/except an ADHD-suffering simpleton to read a 188-page report? Of which he failed to comprehend even the title page and thought it’s from “around 2005” for some reason?

        While this Mr Russian Radar won’t read any the “huge blocks of text” we posted for him, won’t check his own short (and I’m talking about 1-page short) press sources he’s citing repeatedly (even when told to see them, also repeatedly), and won’t even click the bunch of links someone else gave him to copy-paste?

        An example of the last one: https://larussophobe.wordpress.com/2009/10/09/editorial-russia-nation-of-murdering-bastards/ where he apparently kept posting some .ru links as “DOTru”. As I wrote there early in the comments there (using an example of “duality of man, sir!” as it was seen by Politkovskaya in the person of the brutal yet strangely humane OMON commander Dakhiyev – her unlikely friend, now long time dead as the Ingush police killed him even before the assassins killed her), I don’t think Russia’s actually a “nation of murdering bastards”. But Photophobe works hard to convince everyone that they’re a nation of braindead fools.

        Btw, even rasPutin disagrees with him. From the report:

        In 2006, President Vladimir Putin addressing
        the nation, referred to demographic issues
        as “the most acute problem facing Russia
        of today”. In this Report, a highly qualified
        response to this appeal is made. It calls for
        increasing the potential of our country, as a
        response to a clearly stated social demand,
        which is steadily gaining in its importance.

        • True Robert, very true.

          If the majority of Russiana could be like the Politkovskaya’s and Markelovs, and other martyrs to truth, freedom and human rights then we would have n0 problem with them, even if they could be more like my wifes uncle (ethnic Russian, born in Russia but raised in Georgia as a war orphan) who berates his fellow St Petersburg citizens for their racist attitude towards caucasians by stating “have you ever actually met any Georgians (or Chechens or Ingush)?”.

          But alas, the mahority are lying scum like Michael Tal/Phobophobe/Ostap Bender.

          • Oh, you’re generalizing now too.

            Btw, the story of Dakhiyev:

            http://www.signandsight.com/features/authors/271_AnnaPolitkovskaya.html

            About this and as some other examples of life (and death) in modern Russia and their “law enforcement” – after she was killed as well:

            “She was here three or four days,” Astemir Murdalov told Izvestiya. “She stayed with me. As I understood it, she came because of the letters about embezzlement and unlawful conviction. She had many such appeals. I drove her in my car several times, but mostly private drivers drove her around — she had several regular cab drivers. We went to the mother of one of the men convicted in Groznyy. There was another meeting with a Russian woman whose husband was Chechen. They had kidnapped her daughter. We went to her in the town of Katyr-Yurt. Her name is Lyubov Petrovna. Anna talked with her for about three hours…”

            On 17 August Politkovskaya’s article titled “The Umbrella That Gathers Raindrops” came out. On 19 January 2004 Milana Dubas, Lyubov Petrovna’s daughter, was taken from her home by “people in camo clothes” and since then her location has been unknown. The article hinted quite transparently at the involvement in this of a certain FSB (Federal Security Service) associate Mikhail Yevseyev, who served two years in this rayon. While he was there, Politkovskaya writes, 21 people were kidnapped, and after he left — just one.

            In addition, during this visit to Groznyy Politkovskaya met with Buvadi Dakhiyev, deputy commanding officer of the Chechen OMON who was killed a month and a half later in a gun battle between Chechen OMON officers and Ingush police at a checkpoint between the two republics.

            “When they killed him she wrote a big article about him,” says Murdalov. “But in general she did not talk about what her conversations with people covered. She would sit in the evening writing in her notebook. She did not have a computer with her. After Chechnya Anna went to Dagestan. My son-in-law drove her to Khasavyurt. She was interested in the case of a certain human rights worker…”

            He may have been referring to Dagestani human rights worker Osman Boliyev, who she first wrote about in February of this year. Dagestani police supposedly found him in possession of a grenade, but in court Boliyev was able to prove that the grenade had been planted. On 18 May Boliyev was acquitted, but a new criminal case was quickly opened — this time the charge was possession of an automatic weapon.”

            “On 4 July Politkovskaya called me and said that in materials about Nord-Ost that she had obtained there was a report that Boliyev was allegedly one of the organizers of that terrorist act,” Izvestiya was told by Svetlana Gannushkina, human rights worker and chairwoman of the Civil Assistance Foundation. “Anna said, ‘He must be gotten out immediately.’ We sent him to Moscow right then, and on to Ukraine, and then the whole family was sent to Sweden. The office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees quickly adopted an appropriate decision. Thanks to Anna, in mid-August he was already there. In general, in recent years nothing of the paparazzi was left in her. As she worked on the problems of human rights, Anna changed very greatly in her psychology. Therefore she did not report this ‘hot news’ to the press, but made the decision to save Boliyev.”

  30. Robert,

    I think I am dealing with an insane ward here: you and Andrew. But Andrew’s posts I don’t read. With your posts, I try but fail to see hwere you address my simple points and questions. Let me repeat them once again:

    1. Is your position that the Russian population is dropping by 700 000 or by 100 000? And I am referring to THE LAST 6 to 12 months, not 10 years ago and not 3 years ago. And I am referring to YOUR position, not to the outdated newspaper articles from 3 years ago.

    Also:

    2. Are you still sticking to your claim that illegal aliens are considered “permanent populace” and are included in the latest number of 141.9 million:

    “The number of permanent populace of the Russian Federation on July 1 2009 was 141.9 million.”

    Where is your reference showing that illegal aliens are counted in Russia as part of the permanent populace? How CAN temporary and illegal visitors count as PERMANENT?

  31. Robert, I don’t understand any of your logic. Your arguments are surreal in their pointlessness and obtuseness. Here is one example:

    On August 7, 2009 Robert wrote:
    > 3. The bogus “al-Qaeda in Pankisi” threat was fabricated by the Georgians (Shevardnadze) government so the US would arm and train their soldiers in the “war on terrorism”.

    But when I asked Robert on September 25, 2009:
    >> 2. Was or wasn’t the bogus “al-Qaeda in Pankisi” threat fabricated by the Georgian government so the US would arm and train their soldiers in the “war on terrorism”?

    Robert wrote:
    >> 2. No.

    How can you say “No” to your own verbatim statement, Robert? What kind of logic is it?

  32. Even if Michael Tal is right and the population is actually 152 million, that bears little relevance to the fact that the rapid and constant depopulation of Siberia and the Far East will eventually lead to territorial modifications. Of those “12 million” (an unlikely figure, but let’s go by it) how many are moving to Siberia? I don’t really understand how the fact that Moscow is overpopulated and flooded with immigrants from all over the former USSR will halt the population decline (most marked among ethnic Russians) in the Asian part of Russia. And the immigrants who do go to Siberia tend to be Chinese, so, uhmm, doesn’t this make the problem even worse for Russia?

    • A,

      Please understand that the reason why nobody wants to live in Siberia is because the climate there is HELL, just like in Alaska:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska
      Population Total: 686,293 (2008 est.) 626,932 (2000)

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia
      Siberia makes up 25% of Russia’s population (36 million people).

      In other words, there are 50 times more people in Siberia than in Alaska!

      But do you see Chinese people moving to Alaska? There are millions of chinese immigrants here in California but few in Alaska. And the standard of living in Alaska is 10 times higher than in Siberia. And lots of oil and other minerals.

      If the Chinese wanted to live in frozen nothingness, they would first come to Alaska not Siberia.

  33. A wrote:
    > Of those “12 million” (an unlikely figure, but let’s go by it)

    A, actually, the figure of 141.9 million is for PERMANENT RESIDENTS. This figure doesnot include not only illegal foreign workers but also LEGAL ones. And actually, there are 20 million of foreign workers/inhabitants in Russia:

    http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%84%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%82%D1%83%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%B2_%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B9%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B9_%D0%A4%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B8

    По информации главы Федеральной миграционной службы К. Ромодановского (март 2006), ежегодно в Россию на заработки приезжает 20 млн трудовых мигрантов, среди которых 10 млн трудятся нелегально

    According to the heafd of the Federal Immigration Services K. Rmanovsky, there were 20 million of foreign “work migrants”, of which 10 million are working illegaly.

    So, that’s 141.9 plus 20 = 161.9 million people who live in Russia.

  34. Better transaltion:

    According to the head of the Federal Immigration Services K. Romadanovsky, 20 million foreign “work migrants” come to Russia to make wages every year, of which 10 million are working illegaly.

    • Coming to Russia to make wages does not mean they live in Russia. There are a lot legal and both illegal migrant workers who come there for one season in construction, one project, one contract, trading on a market… Their families are at home, they themselves return often for several months. So if anything, it’s just crazy to count them togehter with the population of Russia (anyway they are already counted in the population of Kazachstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia… following your method, there are probably about 7 billion people living on this planet) as they in the best case contribute to the Russian economy but are not “contributing to the Russian population.” So if you want to somehow include illegal and legal migrants, you will have somehow to calculate how many are really living in Russia and how many aren’t. And if you are busy with that, please calculate the amount of legal and illegal immigrants for every year between 1991 and 2009 so that you can compare the numbers on an equal basis. Otherwise your point is moot.

      • > Coming to Russia to make wages does not mean they live in Russia.

        Well, if they live outside of Russia while working in Moscow and other Russian cities, wouldn’t their daily commute be a bit of a bummer? I mean traveling 2 thousand kilometers each way to work 5 days a week – that’s not easy, especially since they can’t afford airline tickets. Plus going through customs twice a day – that’s a bit difficult.

      • Actually, I do get your point. Sorry for being sarcastic earlier. Indeed some foreign workers come to Russia for many years, some others – for several months.

        When these people work, they live in Russia. That means that they sleep, eat, use electricity and do everything else in Russia, just like permanent residents. I myself do that.

        However, it is a fair question to ask how many foreign workers are physically in Russia at any given moment. But I am too tired to do a google search for that. Maybe you can help?

        • And when do they live in Russia? During the 5 months they are working on a construction site in Moscow? Or during the 7 months they live with their family in Tashkent? And what do you mean by living in Russia? Camping in a container on the construction site, tapping of electricity “illegaly” from the construction site and just buying the bare necessities and saving up their wages to take back home? Believe, unlike you I have some experience in Russia, and I have some clue about how immigration looks like over there. Or what to do with people who live from commuting with goods between China and Russia, living one month in Russia and one month in China and back again and again? They are all counted under the category “illegal immigrants”. That is why it doesn’t make sense to just count them under the residing population. And as I said, if you do count them into the entire population, you’ll have to do that for alle the previous years as well, otherwise you have nothing to compare.

          • > you’ll have to do that for alle the previous years as well

            Exactly. And I am comparing with the pre-independence era pre-1992, when there was fast population growth but were few if any “visiting” foreign workers (be it Turkish, Chinese or other) in Russia. Nor were Tadjiks, Ukrainians, Georgians and Moldovans working as illegals.

            • And here you are completely incorrect and are showing your complete lack of knowledge. There were illegal immigrants in the Soviet Union, but they didn’t come from foreign countries. People were not free to choose the place where they were living. Without a propiska or permission, you were not allowed to live e.g. in Moscow – nevertheless, people from other districts were illegaly living there, and were registered and thus counted, somewhere else. So yes, please, take into account the number of illegal residents before 1991 as well.

      • Paul,

        Just ignore this guy. You’re now talking to a brick wall, wasting you time for no good reason.

  35. here is more from the same Wiki, transalted by Google Transaltor:

    Often among the demographic threat to Russia’s security mentioned the possibility of a “quiet expansion” of the populous China with regard to the Far East, with subsequent exclusion of the territory along the Kosovo scenario. However, it’s observed [53] that in the entire Northeast Asia the population density obeys laws depending solely on the natural environment, decreasing from the central provinces of China to the north and northeast, where frontier regions in Russia are often more densely populated than neighboring counties in China. From this we can conclude that Russia’s Far East is not too attractive target for immigration, or at least, that the situation is far from straightforward.

    According to professional demographers in Russia in the Far East, there are between 30 thousand to 200 thousand Chinese, which is insufficient for the “demographic expansion”. At the same time, China is rapidly losing its capacity for expansion due to the rapid decline in the share of youth in the Chinese population.
    —————

    That’s 30 thousand to 200 thousand Chinese out of 36 million total for Siberia.

    By contrast, there are probably 2 million Chinese in California (I am guessing here) and maybe 12 million legal Mexicans out of maybe 36 million people here in California, and another maybe 8 million illegal Mexicans/Hondurans. But is USA about to lose California to China or Mexico? I don’t think so.

  36. Look at it this way: it has been almost 20 years since the borders with China opened up. And in these 20 years, 30 000 to 200 000 Chinese have moved in. That’s 1 500 to 10 000 per year.

    Given that there are 36 million people in Siberia now, how long will it take at this rate for the Chinese to become a majority? Divide 36 000 000 by 10 000. You will get 3 600 years. I don’t think the Human Civilization will last for another 36 centuries.

  37. Here is an interesting book by Parshin “Why Russia is not Ameircan” who argues that for its coldest climate, Russia is over-populated:

    http://www.krugozormagazine.com/show/Russia.373.html

    But, the most important of these geographical differences in Russia from the U.S. (and almost all without exception other countries), of course – its climate. Russia – the coldest country in the world. Pole of Cold in the Northern Hemisphere is in the area Tomtor Omyakonskogo area in Yakutia near the town of Verkhoyansk and, strange as it may, Yakut and Russian live permanently and the economy are. Very frost-resistant people. The same cold territory, of course, there are in other countries. But here’s the difference, and very serious. The western border of Russia is approximately along the isotherm multiyear average January temperature is equal to -9 ° C. Isotherm that is not from East to West, as is supposed, but from South to North, because in the Atlantic Ocean is an “oven”, during the Gulf Stream, which warms generously North-Western Europe, but as far as Russia this warmth does not reach. There is no state with a capital, which would be just as cold in winter and lasted for as long as Moscow. And, except for Russia, nor in any country there are no large cities with millions of people in similar climatic conditions. Today 13 Russian cities have a population of over a million and only one of them, Rostov-on-Don, located in warmer climates, and two millionaire cities – Novosibirsk and Omsk – in Siberia. Of the 86 subjects of the Federation only residents of the territories of the five subjects – Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov region, Krasnodar and Stavropol Territory – January temperatures were above -5 ° C. There live 10% of the population, 15 million.

    In the United States, except Alaska, there is no such cold areas. There are 5 countries with roughly the same as in Russia, the cold climate. These countries – Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland. But their population in the bulk, lives in the warmest part of the countrywith January temperature not lower than -7 ° C. Especially revealing in this regard, Canada, the country more than others similar to Russia. What’s the difference? The fact that the population of Canada “clings” to the border with the United States along its entire length, as well as the Atlantic and Pacific coasts with a mild climate. Canada’s major cities with a population of over 0.5 million people have long-term average temperature in January: Montreal – 6, Ottawa -6, Toronto -3, Vancouver 1. There live about 90% of Canadians. The same situation with the distribution of the population on the territory of Norway, Sweden and Finland. For example, the Finnish industrial production is concentrated around Helsinki, the climate there – as in neighboring Estonia, [which is much warmer than Moscow, not to mention Siberia].

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s