EDITORIAL
Russia, Through the Looking Glass
Something very strange, something that ought to make the Kremlin’s blood run cold (well, colder) has been happening recently in Russia. The price of oil has been rising, but the stock market has been falling. That’s not supposed to happen.
Mind you, having your national stock market enslaved by oil prices set by foreigners is no picnic. But at least you always have something to hope for. If Russia’s stock market doesn’t even respond to the electric jolt of oil prices, something is very, very wrong.
In her most recent Moscow Times column, hero journalist Yulia Latynina gave some insight as to just what that something might be. She points out that Russia finds itself in between the jaws of a wicked vice where the Chinese oil market is concerned: It has sold off a huge quantity of oil at a price that could prove to be well below market, meaning billions and billions in lost revenues. On top of that, it has committed to provide that oil by building a pipeline whose cost has risen by an astronomical 700%. What this means is simple: Not only will Russia be losing profits, it may actually have to sell a huge quanitity of its oil to China at a dead loss.
Ominously, Latynina predicts that Russia will simply back out of this deal, ignoring its formal committments to the government of China, treating China as if it were Georgia or Ukraine. But China is neither one of those countries, it is one of the world’s most potent economic and military forces, and it won’t simply let Russia walk away from this deal. Latynina worries that war could break out, a war Russia can’t possibly even wage much less win. The result could be that China nips off a big chunk of Siberia just the way Russia recently seized sections of Georgia.
The polices of Vladimir Putin have led Russia to the brink of ruin. It is an outcast among civilized nations, with no powerful allies to help it in its struggle with China over Siberia. Russia’s entire future has been wagered on the price of crude oil, a price set by the same foreigners Putin routinely excoriates and attacks. His polices amount to national suicide, and the people of Russia are to blame. They enabled him, they “elected” him, they turned their backs as he betrayed the anti-Soviet revolution of the 1990s.
At last, the consequences of their reckless, wanton actions are plain for all to see.
La Russophobe 
I suspect that China would use a combination of nonmilitary responses; doing everything posible to make life difficult for Russia on the international stage.
If China did go to war over this issue (and for potential territorial gains) it would want one or more justifications beyond being jerked around on energy deals. The “wellbeing” of Chinese in Russian territory might be used as justification.
But the fact that both sides have nukes might make open military action something both sides would be nervous about.
All China has to do is sit patiently and watch Russia implode qiuckly or slowly by death from a thousand paper cuts. Russia is a poorly managed moribund demographically declining state. China will be all over the corpse in time.
You paint it too black. The future of Russia depends on the development of the Chinese economy. The Russians will do their best to please China as a master race of the 21th century. They see it as a natural replacement of the European energy market in the near future.
No Ukraine or Baltic states on transit routs.
Latynina and her pathological sinophobia again. War between Russian and China? Only in the mind of paranoid Sinophobes.
Actually, I remember in Warsaw back in the 1980s there was some tift between Moscow and Beijing — a common occurrence back then — when the Chinese hosted some dinner party at their embassy and it was widely noted that they had a map conspicuously hanging in one of the party rooms which, though labeled only in Chinese, obviously extended China’s borders well into Siberia. This was duly noted in the Polish communist press (and condemned, of course) but many Poles chuckled at the idea all the same. Years later I heard or read a joke somewhere whose punchline ended with the mention of the “Polish-Chinese border”, and I remember wondering if this joke was born of that incident.
> when the Chinese hosted some dinner party at their embassy and it was widely noted that they had a map
Were you present at that party?
Sure! Just like you.
I was no one in the 1980s who would be invited to an embassy party.
Then it is information obtained from what the Russian called “the OBS news agency”. The OBS means “Odna babushka skazala” (some granny said).
so far, I could find only this one map in the net:
http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2007/12/17/221-greater-china-made-in-taiwan/
It’s not the comie Chinese map, but Taiwanese.
Only small part of Russian Siberia is claimed, mostly it’s Mongolia and parts of other asian countries.
o yes, not only small part of Russian Siberia, but also Tuva republic.
The article pf Latynina, just shows the typical Russian mentality . It just shows how Russians think. It’s about how Russians would act if they would bein place of China – of course, they would want to take Siberia as fast as they can, and aggresively.
But China – they have different mentality – their leaders plan China’s strategy long into future, and Chinese are patient.
The only reason, why China would go into war with Russia now, if the Chinese would deicide that they need to reduce their populiation.
They say in Russia Yulia Latynina is an “independently” US fed media clown and 99,9% of Russians have never heard her name.
This being, of course, yet another example of you pulling statistics out of your ass.
Asehpe
“This being, of course, yet another example of you pulling statistics out of your ass.”
Give me your stat numbers or I’ll call you a bad name.