June 26, 2009 — Contents

FRIDAY JUNE 26 CONTENTS

(1)  EDITORIAL:  Russia’s Dutch Politics

(2)  EDITORIAL:  Zagat on Russia

(3)  Say it Loud & Proud:  “I am a Russophobe!”

(4)  Latynina on the Second War in Georgia

(5)  Europe on Russian Courts:  Guilty!

micex_index30_smallNOTE: The MICEX ruble-denominated stock index, as shown in the chart at left, has lost nearly one quarter of its value since the month began, a stunning collapse leading it to crash back down through the critical 1,000 point psychological barrier earlier this week.  The RTS dollar-denominated index has done the same. Russian corporate earnings are expected to contract a breathtaking 60% this year, more than  double the average for all developing countries.  GDP was down 11% in May, accelerating the contraction felt in April, and industrial production down 17%. Wow.  Yet more proof, as if any was needed, of the catastrophic failure of the Putin government.

57 responses to “June 26, 2009 — Contents

  1. Once again, the only relation Russia has to BRIC is that its economy is dropping like one.

    LA RUSSOPHOBE RESPONDS:

    That’s a good one Andrew! LOL! Bravo.

  2. Well, it looks like our predictions are being fulfilled. Sadly, Cathy no longer posts here. She was so adamant last year that I was wrong, because the World Bank and the IMF was saying last year that the Russian economy would grow by at least 6%. If anything, Russia is lucky in that speculators are still pushing up the price of oil to $70 a barrel. I guess she is still busily looking for a contemporary dictionary where they refer to “the” Ukraine ;)

  3. Michel, my take is:

    US oil reserves are above last year’s summer driving season, oil imports are down, and this recession is deepening globally killing demand for oil. A large percentage of NG is used for manufacturing and that’s down in the EU.

    Barring a shock in the ME which Russia would relish it’s going to be years before their coffers are at their fat oil year’s levels again if ever. Plus Russia has degraded their oil fields with lack of proper maintenance and investments. Base metal exports are down and that has to hurt too. They neither manufacture a product nor have a copyright on anything that the world wants.

    Hyperinflation, but, that’s hopefully years away, could help them out of this bind.

    Another wild card is a regime change in Iran that would end sanctions and allow their oil and NG exports hit the market. Imagine the damage to Russia if Iran with 1/4 the world’s reserves in NG could export to the EU using LNG technology.

    Russia hasn’t got any control over their economy. They are simply a well head or a mine pit for others. When China stops filling their commodity reserves on the cheap they are toast.

    Russia isn’t even in the same league with India and China as far as economies go. Both have people resources with permissions to innovate that Russia doesn’t. I’m only leaving Brazil out because it’s a more commodity based economy.

    • “Hyperinflation, but, that’s hopefully years away, could help them out of this bind.”
      1) If you mean Zimbabwe-type hyperinflation, experience has shown (e.g. Zimbabwe) it is not of such great help.
      2) Aren’t you the one always going on about inflation in Russia and how it eats away at salaries?

      “Another wild card is a regime change in Iran that would end sanctions and allow their oil and NG exports hit the market. Imagine the damage to Russia if Iran with 1/4 the world’s reserves in NG could export to the EU using LNG technology.”

      1) Yes, it is a wild card indeed, but your typical russophobe can always hope in vain, can’t she Penny? At present it is probably better for the west to work with Russia than Iran. But adamant russophobes cannot have that…
      2) Demand has dropped and will stay low for the coming years in all likelyhood but to assume that supply will be sufficient without Russia is wacky. Besides, it would increase dependence on other countries.

      “Russia hasn’t got any control over their economy. They are simply a well head or a mine pit for others. ”
      1) Pointless russophobic aphorism that cannot withstand the most basic logical evaluation. Countries need to export but to do so, there needs to be somebody to buy/import. In that sense no country fully controls its economy (aren’t we suposed to be liberal anyway?).
      2) Are you implying China is going to stop needing natural resources? (lol)

      “Russia isn’t even in the same league with India and China as far as economies go.”
      Indeed with a gdp/ppp per capita that is near that of former eastern bloc countries now in the EU and several times that of China and India, Russia is indeed in a different league.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

      “Both have people resources with permissions to innovate that Russia doesn’t.”
      1) Russia has a more educated population than China ans India. Here’s some proof for those who question the self-evident:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Russia
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_India
      2) Doing business in Russia is not considerably more difficult than in India
      http://www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreEconomies/?economyid=159
      http://www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreEconomies/?economyid=89
      while China still has a communist government.
      In light of the above your claim about “people with permissions (?) to innovate (?)” seems rather ludicrous.

      “I’m only leaving Brazil out because it’s a more commodity based economy.”
      But by doing this you’re making an implication that is against cliche russophobe argumentation and are hence contradicting yourself. You normally locate Russia’s economic weakness (?) in the (alleged) lack of democracy. But by leaving out democratic Brazil on the basis of economic structure you go against this. Interesting….

  4. penny, don’t insult Brazil as being par with Russia. Brazil has much more viable industrial sector with such renowned products as Embraer airplanes etc.

  5. Legal Nihilism=Iran

    Disco inferno

  6. This post is amazingly prescient.
    http://www.grani.ru/Economy/m.152958.html
    Telenor decision crashed Russia’s stock market
    Foreign investors reduced their presence in Russian stock market in record numbers. Investment funds withdrew $79M from Russia. RTS lost 5.5 per cent in a week; MMVB lost 5.6 per cent. The volume on the Russian market has been growing for three and half months until then.

    $79M is a record since last December when foreign investors withdrew $93.5M before New Year.

    The sell-off by Scandinavian long-term investors began when appeal court in Omsk made a $1.73B decision against Telenor and federal bailiff service began withdrawing funds from company accounts.

    This sell-off made Russian stock market an outsider. Leading Asian indicators gained .8-1.7 per cent last week, European markets lost 1.5-3 per cent; American lost .5-1.5 per cent.

    The main reason of bigger Russian losses was also decreased oil prices.

  7. Really Micheal? I thought you were still busily trying to find out what Russia has in the way of reserves!
    http://www.robertamsterdam.com/2009/02/energy_blast_-_feb_27th_2009.htm

    Oh, and Andrew I have an even better one for you LOL
    https://larussophobe.wordpress.com/2008/12/28/editorial-russia-what-kind-of-country/

  8. gdp, so Russia has large forex reserves, so what?
    Their real economy is in tatters, with the monocities on the verge of, or actually, collapsing. The reason the forex reserves are so high is that the Russian government does not bother to spend money on the vital infrastructure that a country as vast as Russia requires.

    The collapse of Russian manufacturing, the collapse of its rotting infrastructure, and the political repression that is (once again) rearing its head should be apparent to anyone.

    Russia is doing the same thing it has always done.
    The Ruling class rob the country blind, misappropriating funds, using tax as a weapon to destroy “non compliant” companies that make a profit which are then swallowed up by “compliant” (and usually government owned) corporations.

  9. Andrew, the aim of my post was to point out amateurisms, inconsistencies, inaccuracies and a generally low level of argumentation on your and Michel’s behalf as well as a reply to your jerkish comment. Sadly but expetedly, you ignored that point and set off on an amusing rant that started from cliches, continued to irrelevance and ended up in a tat of kiwi marxism. Not that anything can save you from your humiliation-prone self, but I would recomment next time you actually decide to marxistly rant irrelevant cliches, do so with regards to comments that concern you. I did not go to the trouble to find the link just for only the rational to realize why you should be -as stated in a post in the link- broadly discredited.

  10. Learn to spell GDP,
    And what was jerkish about my comment?
    Just a word play, of course those such as yourself have no sense of humor.
    As for a russophile accusing others of being marxist, thats just highly entertaining.
    Your style of argument is more along the lines of “neo stalinist” of course.

    Considering that Russian companies have started defaulting on their debts to foreign banks, Russia really is in it up to the eyeballs.

    “By JOANNA SLATER in New York and ANDREW OSBORN in Moscow
    A tiny default by a Russian aircraft-leasing company is sending ripples through the much larger market for the country’s debt.

    The default by Finance Leasing Co. on $250 million of bonds is the first by a Russian state-owned company on foreign debt since the country’s 1998 financial meltdown.

    That is rattling foreign investors, who worry that Russia could allow many more companies to renege on billions of dollars of debt while it grapples with an economic and financial crisis.

    “It’s clear that the capacity and willingness of the government to…provide support to a large number of entities is declining,” says Ed Parker, head of emerging Europe sovereigns at Fitch Ratings.

    After suffering a currency crash and a default on its sovereign debt a little more than a decade ago, Russia began to recover thanks to soaring energy prices.

    That drew back foreign investors. And when times were good, Russian companies borrowed heavily in international debt markets, to the tune of more than $215 billion since 2006, according to Dealogic.

    Now they are facing an environment where it is impossible to get funding from abroad and the local banking system is under huge strain.

    The ruble has also tumbled, making it more onerous to repay debts denominated in dollars or euros.

    J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. estimates that Russian firms need to refinance or pay off at least $40 billion in foreign-currency borrowing this year alone. To do that, many will need help from the Russian government.

    FLC’s default has raised the ire of investors, a number of whom said they participated in the issue only because of the company’s ties to the government.

    “It was the first Russian bond I bought in 10 years, and I regret it,” says Michel Lahaie, head of Axiom Investment Management, a Hong Kong money manager who invested funds both personally and on behalf of clients. “Frankly, we’re all stupid for lending money to Russia.”

    The government has made it clear that it can’t help the entire corporate sector with its foreign-currency debt.

    Earlier this year, it scrapped a $50 billion fund aimed at helping companies with such borrowing.

    In addition, Russia has depleted its considerable foreign-exchange reserves, spending more than one-third of what was once a $600 billion stockpile since last August.

    Some analysts believe FLC will prove to be an isolated case, since it seems to involve specific issues of mismanagement.

    However, others note that by allowing FLC to default, the message from the government appears to be “we’ll take care of the big guys, but after that, you’ve been warned,” says Jonathan Schiffer, lead sovereign analyst for Russia at Moody’s Investors Service in New York.

    Investors shouldn’t assume that “just because a company is directly or indirectly owned by the state that that provides some sort of comfort for bondholders,” he says.

    FLC is a subsidiary of United Aircraft Corp., a large Russian state-owned conglomerate that includes the makers of the famed MiG fighter planes and Sukhoi jets. The state directly owns a 29% stake in FLC and a further 52% indirectly through United Aircraft, itself 90% state-owned.

    In December, FLC defaulted on $250 million in debt held by investors including major American, British and European banks, institutional investors, and hedge funds, as well as Russian banks.

    On one part of that borrowing, it failed to make its first interest payment. The $150 million five-year bond was issued last June with a coupon of 10%. Moody’s rated the debt two notches below investment grade. It said the company enjoyed a “medium” level of government support and noted that “a default on the part of the company could cause embarrassment, as it would imply government mismanagement in an area of great economic importance.”

    FLC declined requests for comment.

    Maxim Sysoev, a spokesman for United Aircraft Corp., FLC’s parent company, said the situation was “complex” and the company was monitoring the situation to see if FLC “can cope on [its] own.”

    Some investors remain convinced that Russian authorities will step in.

    “They really are wise enough to know that this is a crucial issue and a crucial industry,” says Francois Nordhof, an asset manager at Banque de Commerce et de Placements, a Swiss private bank that is one of the bondholders.

    If you need foreign investors in the future, he says, “you need not to disappoint them, even in the current turmoil.”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123776253482808413.html

    http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/russian-economic-collapse.html

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8198.html

    http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20090616&id=9907766

    http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090205a2.html

  11. Andrew, first of all, I found the arrogance of your comment jerkish.The term marxist reffers to the third point of your reply to my post where you talk of some “ruling class” and was highly ironic. There is nothing “neo-stalinist” about my style of argumentation, aiming to discredit one who has been proved ignorant (linguistics case) or a blatant liar and manipulator of facts and figures (Michel’s forex reserves). If so by analogy your attempt to discredit someone based on spelling errors (case with linguist which you’re trying on even now) is probably reminiscient of the purge. Clearly this constitutes a trivial argument on your behalf.
    The aim of me posting this link was to show the failure of “russophobes” to articulate any form of criticism that can taken remotely seriously but who normally opt for abuse, arrogance and [sic] jerkdom. You have acted in a way that primarily proves the latter. As one has probably noticed by now, you have abstained from commenting on the context of the original link concerning you but have resorted to a rant. Don’t expect me to get bogged down in an unpleasant and irrelevant debate with you so you get away from not answering for the original point.

    • The fact of the matter is that Russia’s reserves are finite, and they are running out. Even Russia has realized this as they cancelled billions of planned spending that had been promised to support banks and industry.

      However, Russia is going to face a major problem in that hundreds of billions of dollars will be needed to maintain production. GAZPROM will have to invest between 100 and 200 billions dollars in order to develop gas field located much farther to the north and/or under the Arctic Ocean. Where will the money come from?

    • Well, so I and “linguist” were having a disagreement, so what?
      There are several history/anthropology faculties that support my arguments, and several that support “linguists”.
      Unfortunately arrogant jerks such as yourself cannot understand the concept of “debate”, “linguist” itself admitted that there are many similarities and links between basque and Kartulad, but was stating there was no direct incontrovertible evidence that they were the same language.
      However as my lecturers stated, the chances of two languages (4 if you include the Fir-Bolg (black Irish), the Austrian mountian people, and the Picts, all of whom had many words and linguitsic structures in common with Kartulad) having so many links and common threads without having a common source is minimal indeed.
      Then there are the Black Irish legends about how they came to Ireland in the 1st place, stated out on the east side of the black sea (hmm, that would be Georgia), moved around the top of the black sea, into Greece where they were used as labour (historically documented), escaped fled through the alps (austrian mountain peoples) into Spain (Basque country), and then to Ireland and northern Britain.
      Of course it is so long ago that we will never really know.
      However the Romans labelled their subject peoples by language.
      The Black Irish, Basques, Georgians, and Austrian mountaineers were all labelled “Iberians”

      As for the economy of Russia, well obviously you have no sense of humor, and no brains for that matter.
      My comments about ruling classes were not marxist but “rule of lawist” something rather lacking in the open sewer that is modern Russia (or Russia in any period for that matter).

      Russia is stealing from its pension funds to avoid touching the Forex reserves (this is assuming, as Michael rightly pointed out, that the Russian government is not just stealing the money and telling lies about it). This has been described as unconstitutional/illegal by many Russian economists (including one of my uncles in law I might add).

      It is interesting to note that those such as yourself who wish to laud Russia as an economic giant fail to notice the collapse of its manufacturing, agricultural, and contsruction industries, the collapse of its railways and highways, and the collapse of its medical and education services.

      The Russian government has built up (stolen) huge reserves by failing to invest in the education, healthcare, and manufacturing economy, though in the latter case considering the substandard and outright inferior junk that Russia produces, who can blame them?

      • Hi Andrew,

        Actually, roosha does not have many highways, and if one or two collapse, then there will not be any left. :)

        • :) Quite so.

          Of course GDP thinks the sun shines out of Putins back passage, so don’t expect him to agree.

  12. The fact of the matter has again been deliberately missed by a wannabe russophobe. The aim of the post was not to question the finiteness of the russian reserves but to point out the extent to which russophobes have resorted to downright lies and half truths- who, nonetheless cheekily appear her and there. In your case, Michel this has remained unanswered now and back then at Robert Amsterdam’s blog.
    By the way,next time you choose to go off topic write something that doesn’t have “copy+paste from a post half a year” stamped on its forehead!
    I mean, God, where have you been all this time Michel? Chasing Cathy all around (the) Ukraine? Have you not noticed that russian reserves have larrgely stabilized and increased to over $400bn (which by the way should be enough to cover for this $100-200bn in case your math again deliberately fails you like last time when your calculations fell short off about $159bn)?

    • Stabilized? Russia has been running a deficit since the beginning of the year. The money is coming from somewhere, and that somewhere are the reserves. I have my doubts as to whether the Russian state is now being completely honest in providing the real numbers. True, the rise in oil prices will help Russia, but even then this will only be a short term boost and oil prices, as Penny noted, are likely to fall once the speculation bubble bursts.

  13. Andrew
    1) I was not picking up on your disagreement with linguist but on his/her proving your absolute ignorance. Even today you still go on rambling about legends asnd God knows what else that is of little importance, citing lectures at some mysterious university of some sort. I don’t give two hoots about what your “lecutres” sya or what your “uncle” says.
    2) The use of the term marxist referred to the use of the phrase “ruling class”. There is absolutely no school of political or intelectual philosophy that is labelled “rule of lawist”. It’s just a coined up term by one whose typically russophobic intellectual hollowness needs to be covered up and validated, which is the reason I believe your “lectures” have made their appearance.
    3) Regarding linguists post, you seem to be following Michel’s tactics of manipulation and half truth telling. You say he/she admits to a number of links between thew two languages but conceal that he/she provides a very reasonable justification for them. Your claim that linguist says that “there was no direct incontrovertible evidence that they were the same language” is ludicrous. Linguist argued against their very connection and brought evidence that this hypothesis has nowadays been largely “discredited”(you’d think it was coined by a russophobe).
    4) But going into the issue of weather the two languages are related pray teel me two things:
    a) what are these structures- and what are structures by the way- that are common to both languages? Please do us the honour you didn’t do linguist all this time. Suggestion why don’t you even try wals.info (if you’ve figured out how to work it all this time)
    b)when exactly did these people(s) cross over from the Caucasus to the Iberian pennisula?
    5) As I previously stated, I will not comment on your ranting thta aims at derailing the topic and enabling you from answering the questions that prove why you should not be taken seriously like most russophobes.

    Michel
    it seems you were so absorbed in chasing Cathy around Ukraine that youfailed to notice the difference between the Central Bank reserves ($407bn) and the Reserve Fund and Future Generations Fund. Hence you resort to the ame half truths over at Robert Amsterdam’s which I am point out considering you as incredulous. Either way I suspect your maths is good enough to understand that the reserves are sufficient for a year or so more.
    2) Your doubts are of little interest to me and are used mainly to cover up your inaccuracies. You’d think that considering the crisis you’de be able to find more concrete evidence, that doesn’t come from the “liberal” opposition.
    3) Penny has clearly failed to notice that there is an economic crisis with oil demand declining but that in the coming years there wil again be a higher demand for oil. Time will only prove Penny miserably wrong. At least I won’t have to point out ignorance and the lies involved.

    • Really, that is rich coming from a russophile such as yourself.

      Russophiles are usually those who are more than happy to justify Russia’s massive crimes in the 20th, and now 21st centuries, its opressive, corrupt and hypocritical government, its agression against its neighbours (there is a reason so many of them want to join NATO).

      If Russia is doing so well, how come the vast overwhelming body of evidence (not to mention advice from financial institutions) is to have nothing to do with the place due to the lack of a working judicial system, police and governmental corruption, and an expansionist foreign policy?

      Russia is cutting its own throat, breeding itself out of existance (thank God), and when Russia is but an unpleasant memory, the world will breathe a sigh of relief.

    • You and Cathy share a common trait: the inability to analyze and extrapolate. You choose one source of data (in your case whatever the Russian state reports) and are incapable of seeing inconsistencies. You are blinded in your need to believe and you disregard contradictory evidence.

      The fact of the matter is that the Russian state has some reserves left, but Russian state-owned corporations (wholly owned or partially owned) owe massive sums of money and this fall large sums of money have to be repaid. Add in the fact that the Russian state is faced with a large deficit and you will have a state that will be faced with some difficult choices. Either it pays off the debt of its large corporations or its lets these corporations default on their loans. Either it can spend its reserves or cut back on pensions or government expenses or simply print rubles pushing inflation ever higher. Or it can spend whatever is left of its reserves in the fall and hope that oil prices will rise dramatically next year.

      Believe what you will, but logic dictates that Russia will have some pretty unpleasant choices to make in the fall. The reserves are not indefinite and will run out sooner or later. My prediction is that oil prices will fall in after the summer and that whatever is left of the reserves will be spent when the next wave of the crisis hits.

      The signs that the second wave is starting are already there. The Moscow Times has an article entitled “VTB Plans Layoffs As Bad Loans Swell” (http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/600/42/379151.htm). They write: “VTB Group may lay off as many as 1,000 employees at its retail banking operations as overdue loans threaten to reach 8 percent of its portfolio, executives said Monday at the annual shareholders meeting.” Countless other banks in Russia will be faced with the same problem later this year.

  14. Andrew and Michel, I don’t define myself as a russophile. On the contrary. I have only to a small extent made any reference to Russia per se. My problem is the inability of russophobes to provide any serious rationale and their resorting to half-truths, lies, what’sit-like arrogance, lame appeals to authority, off topic rants, change of topic as suited, inaccuracies, logical fallacies and ignorance. Russia needs serious critique not the smugness of college brats. Russia needs an intelligent person to criticize, not somebody who resorts to his pseudo-university, his pseudo-lecturers and his pseudo-uncle. Russia needs criticism from someone who realizes that Bloomberg is not russian media and one who doesn’t feel the need to openly lie about reserves.Nor does Russia need the likes of quasi-psychoanalysis (quite frankly speak for yourself) or assertions as to one’s ability to analyze and extrapolate. My ability to do so (and in fact Cathy’s judging by her comments) needs no acreditation from one who resorts to articles from newspapers regarding the situation in Russia as a responce to an accusation that he is downright untruthful about facts.

    P.S. For some not so mysterious reason none of the Fellowship of Russophobes never responded to the accusation of total ignorance or lies. Just as they never did when they were confronted but left quietly and with little dignity. If more irrelevant material is to be presented as a counter-argument doesn’t expect a responce, I think I’ve fed the trolls long enough…

    • “I think I’ve fed the trolls long enough…” In other words, you have nothing else to say.

      “My ability to do so (and in fact Cathy’s judging by her comments) needs no acreditation from one who resorts to articles from newspapers regarding the situation in Russia” Ah, so where do you prefer getting your information, straight from the Kremlin?

      The facts are simple. Last year, I argued that the Russian GDP would collapse and it did. I am sure you would have argued, like Cathy, that the Russian GDP was to grow by 6% whereas now even the optimists will say that it will shrink only by 6%.

      As for the reserves, well, the fact that the topic seems to have disappeared from the Russian media, and the speeches of Putin & Co., is that the Kremlin would prefer to have people forget about the fabled reserves as there is likely not much left in reality.

      Given that prices for oil have gone up somewhat, I would wager that what is left of the reserves will be gone within a year. What is your prediction? Say where you stand, and we can see who will be right a year from now.

  15. Serious rationale, well I guess my wife’s relatives being “ethnicly cleansed” or her sister in law being raped by Russian soldiers, or the historic crimes of Russia would be evidence enough of Russian crimes.

    Not to mention the collapse of Russian industry.

    Still, idiots such as yourself tend to have fairly large blinkers when it comes to morality, truth, and other such things.

  16. “In other words, you have nothing else to say. ”

    There is actually very little to say to you. You are a downright liar as I showed over at Robert Amsterdam. What you argued with Cathy about Russia’s growth rate is of little interest to me at present. There is little point in presenting another point or engaging in any form of bet or prediction as it is simply irrelevant to my original accusation and serves only to distract from it. Such tactics are deployed by the likes of you because analyzing and extrapolating would leave you exposed, which is why you will revert to anything to avoid answering the point.

    The facts are indeed simple. This is what you wrote:
    “Sorry, but both the MDB number and my number INCLUDES the forex reserves.[$220bn] The fact of the matter is that you are unwilling to admit the obvious which is that the Russian reserves are quickly going to run out. So, unless you can cite some source demonstrating that some other “forex reserves” still exist, then I will stand by my numbers and will conclude that you are simply trying to obfuscate as you cannot back up what you are saying with any real statistics.”

    And then somebody comes up with $380bn. Who do think you’re kidding?

    Andrew, I do not buy into this emotional garbage about your wife or your sister in-law, just as I don’t believe your “university”, “lecturers” or “uncle”. In light of the fact that these things happened in parts of the world and are serious and sinister, it would perhaps be wise if you abstained from these stories as a sharade to cover up for the intellectual tripe for which linguist undoubtaby exposed you for. And if it were not for the seriousness and sinisterness of these practises it would be most amusing to accuse one of being so ignorant they be discredited only to answer back by mentioning russian war crimes.

    “Idiots”: apart from now reverting to your true self at larussophobe by abusing others who disagree with you, it is rather awkwrd to hear this from somebody who confuses linguistics with folklore. Yeah well, truth hurts.

    • So even the Russian economy ministry is wrong regards the collapse of Russian industry (and GDP)?

      Sounds like you live in a fantasy world GDP.

      As for your comments that what my in-laws suffered is “emotional garbage”, well thats just the sort of retarded opinion I would expect from an amoral piece of scum such as yourself.

      Another thing GDP, the study of ancient history involves looking at the “folklore” of the studied culture, particularly when dealing with the bronze age.

      Most myths and legends about national migrations and origins have been found to have a basis in fact. Take the example of Troy.

      Of course, the fact that the Russian people are very recent anthropologicly speaking kind of makes them unable to grasp this concept.

      Once again, the Russian economy is in freefall, and totally dependant on what happens to the European and US economies.

      To deny it is rather ostrich like, though in your case it would seem your head is up your arse rather than in the sand.

    • Fine, I made a mistake and did not include the forex reserves (if of course the Russian state is accurately reporting its numbers of course).

      However, the fact remains that Russia was spending like a drunken sailer on shore leave, is facing a budget deficit and an infrastructure deficit. Plus, Russian corporations owe between 500 and 700 billion dollars. How far do you think your $200 billion will go?

      You still did not answer my question: when do you predict that the reserves will run out? Or, do you truly believe that the reserves are will never run out and that the Russian state will be capable of bailing out all its corporations and banks without hyperinflation or massively devaluing the ruble? Give me your analysis.

      Even Da Russophile on SWP was willing to give numbers and state publicly his predictions. Why can’t you?

  17. Dmitry's legal nihilist brother in Iran

    Mr. GDP, what’s the official Nashi approved message board spam message for the crashing MICEX?

  18. Andrew, my point was to point out your ignorance not to discuss the russian economy with you as it changes the topic.

    “Sounds like you live in a fantasy world GDP.”
    That’s interesting considering all the figures you’ve invented to support your “arguments”.

    Regarding your accusation about my amorality I’d suggest you take a look at yourself in the mirror. It is amoral and immoral to create stories to support your own arguments not to point out the fact the your interlocutor is a LIAR!

    What you say about history, folklore andanthropology is corect but it has NOTHING to do with LINGUISTICS and as linguist showed is proof of amateurism in linguistics. Yet you continue(d) to play smart….
    Even now you insist! Thank you, though, for proving my point as a typical russophobe that should not be taken seriously.

    “To deny it is rather ostrich like, though in your case it would seem your head is up your arse rather than in the sand.” : a russophobe resorting to the usual vulgarities when confronted effectively, I’m flaterred :)

    Michel ,my point was not about you making a mistake with the numbers but consciously being untruthful- you actually denied the existence of any reserves and if any reader doubts this they may go to the link and read one of your last comments. Perhaps even more importantly you insisted on my correction until it was impossible to do so, then you silently backed down.

    The fact that the reserves of any sort will be strained is valid but not relevant to my accussation. What you’re essentially saying is that is doesn’t matter at what level the reserves stand they will decline anyway, ergo it’s ok for me to be untruthful. Wow now that’s going some in terms of cheek isn’t it?

    “How far do you think your $200 billion will go?” You’re still insisting??? I’m starting to be suspicious that maybe you were not deliberately untruthful but palin simple.

    As I stated in my previous comment I will not engage in any discussion with you over the issue of the economy nor will I make predictions because it is off topic and allows you room to cover for your lies and half-truths.

    • Well GDP, as the figures I have used have come from WSJ and other reliable sources, one can only assume you are totally without honesty, as is confirmed by your arguments.

    • GDP, I based my numbers on Russian sources and other credible sources. If I overlooked something, mea culpa. However, you still refuse to add anything credible to the discussion. Again, explain to us how Russia is going to use whatever is left of its reserves to do all that has to be done to avoid economic chaos? Give us the numbers, tell us how much Russia has left in its reserves, explain how that money will cover the deficit, the banks’ debts, the money that large corporations say that the Russian government must give them so that they will not go belly up…. Rather than venting, give us your numbers and your analysis if you are truly capable of doing this.

  19. Andrew, I see we’ve abandoned the university lecturers ,the specialist in whatever uncle and the battered in-laws joke. Good, because it was in extremely poor taste.
    Didn’t they ever teach you at university not to use to causal clauses of the same sentence. Which one of the two shows me to be dishonest (of course if they taught you that linguistics?
    Pray tell me though, how does pointing out of blatant ignorance and insistence, criticising college brat lippiness and expressing disbelief to every towards the most incredulously fictitious background constitute a confirmation of my dishonesty? Does it really? You don’t say :0
    The WSJ and the other reliable sources have nothing to do with my argumjentation about your down right ignorance. Hence they can neither confirm bor contradict me on the issue. In other words they can not show me to be dishonest. Even if I were to succumb to the temptation to engage in a conversation with Michel over the (economic) state of affairs in Russia, it would be because it would be a challenge to cebunk his distortions and half-truths. This will not be the case with you.

    Michel, your sources at Robert Amsterdam (which are the only ones of relevance) contradicted all western sources that estimated russian reserves at a much higher level that the russian opposition you cited and made no reference to Russia giving out the amounts the Milov report claimed. A few hundreds of $bns is not just an overlooking and it was accidental neither. So I think tua culpa is an understatement.
    As I will not succumb in to the temptation to engage with you in a discussion as your distortions and half-truths render this unfruitful, I will urge anybody interested to google for russian (forex) reserves for themselves starting from the link to Robert Amsterdam where I provided links to credible western sources. What I claimed back them was confirmed plain and simple. Back there somebody did so and confirmed me.

    P.S Acknowledging an “overlooking” is indeed progress but like your asking me to provide sources it is but a bit too late.

    • GDP writes: “As I will not succumb in to the temptation to engage with you in a discussion as your distortions and half-truths render this unfruitful”

      It would be easier for you to simply admit that you have nothing meaningful to add to the discussion. Your only contribution is attacking me based on number that I cited from Russian sources on another site. Can you say one trick pony? You refuse to add any other meaningful comment or analysis because it is easier to attack than provide ideas and participate in a discussion.

    • Well GDP, all I can say is “Tu sheidzleba uppals, GDP da GDP ojaki savidet jojoheti” and of course my personal favourite “GDP, shen sheni deda movtrhan?”

      I was certainly not joking about the crimes inflicted upon my in-laws, and can only say that you obviously assume that all others sink to your own level of lies and falsifications.

      As for “Didn’t they ever teach you at university not to use to causal clauses of the same sentence. Which one of the two shows me to be dishonest (of course if they taught you that linguistics?”

      Did the ever teach you to spell at university? Most of your posts are full of the worst english usage imagineable. Not to mention your sentence structure old chap.

  20. Didn’t they ever teach you at university not to use to causal clauses of the same sentence. Which one of the two shows me to be dishonest (of course if they taught you that linguistics?

    My apologies, allow mne to rephrase this typographical error.
    Didn’t they ever teach you at university not to use to causal clauses of the same sentence? Which one of the two shows me to be dishonest? (of course if they taught you that linguistics=folklore, what do you expect?)

  21. It would be easier if you just withdrew silently from the discussion like you did at Robert Amsterdam. It would be even more honest if you admited you lied rather than try to make it look better as if you forgot to add up a number to the grand total.
    My contribution was made over at Robert Amsterdam. It was clear, truthful and based on reliable sources- Bloomberg among others. I do not intend on contributing to a discussion with you because it would not be meaningful. And yes it is easier to prove you are a liar than to attempt to debunk your tribe, for you insisit distorting and being untruthful. The aim of “attacking” you is to show you should never be taken all to seriously regardless of how credulous your appear to be on the surface.

    P.S. Even if I was to accept that over at Robert Amsterdam you did make a “mistake” of such magnitude and insisted upon it, I’d have pretty good evidence for the fact your views are far from flawless and that you have a very limited perspective and reasoning-argumentation skills (despite the fact you have accused others of both).

    • I give up. Clearly, you are unable of articulating one original idea. I have always argued that Russia’s reserves won’t save Russia and that sooner or later they will run out. Next year, when this happens, I will remind you of your foolishness. Feel free to go on with you blather as you clearly are incapable of contributing anything useful to this discussion.

  22. Andrew I understand your frustration but having to use another language because you have nothing to say is really quite lame and really spells out college brat. How grown up in deed! :)

    The assumption that you are not all that truthful about your in-laws comes not from my sinking to your own level (or Michel’s for that matter, he’s the expert at manipulation and distortion around here) but
    a) from the fact you seem to revert to them at will whenever it suits you
    b) the fact that nobody related to these people would have the indignity to use these stories/experiences in such a petty manner as you do
    c) the amazing number of fictitious relatives and schooling you have come up with to make yourself look more credible.

    You have clearly not noticed the correction of my post or have chosen to deliberately ignore it. This is merely a way of attacking me that could only be done by a genuine wannabe but untalented/unskilled russophobe. However, I can assuring you that I am a native pseaker of English of university education, I can confrim that typographical errors do not constitute “the worst english usage imagineable” I will only note with regards to this
    a) usage: sorry doesn’t sound right here
    b) the structure of my sentences is more than fine, if it too complex for to follow as your original posts indicated that is not my fault
    d) this is more than what I can say for you. To include because/as/since … phrases in a sentence twice is far more wrong than any complex sentence structure. Did you forget to type something in, are you so irrate you can no longer think and write properly? :) Never mind, you were never very good at doing either from what it seems.
    d) rather than telling me what constitutes “the worst english usage imagineable” why don’t you come back on my question as to what constitutes my dishonesty.

    “old chap”: how little you know in your smugness

    • GDP “You have clearly not noticed the correction of my post or have chosen to deliberately ignore it. This is merely a way of attacking me that could only be done by a genuine wannabe but untalented/unskilled russophobe. However, I can assuring you that I am a native pseaker of English of university education, I can confrim that typographical errors do not constitute “the worst english usage imagineable” I will only note with regards to this”

      Thanks for proving my point GDP, you really are a scream.

      Native english speaker? What BS, though you could have dyslexia LOL.

      As for university educated, well if they let you pass with the grammar and spelling you have shown us here, you must have gotten your degree from the Weet-a-bix box. HAHAHAHA

      Pull the other one GDP, its got bells on.

  23. Andrew, what you wrote was vulgar and insulting but I don’t expect anything better of you. I’m actually honoured because it proves my point(s).
    Unlike you I will not disgrace the Georgian people, language and culture. So I will say the following:
    1)”Do not blame the sun for the darkness of the night.” Don’t swear at me for telling the truth.
    2) “I have a lot to say,” said the fish, “but my mouth is full of water.” Kind of in your case, replace have with would have and mouth with head.
    3)”One blind man followed the other and they both fell into the ditch.” What can be said of you and Michel.
    4)”Only the dumb can silence the chatterer.” Which is why you’re still talking.
    5)”The cat which did not reach the sausage said: Anyhow it is Friday.” Kind of in your case.
    6)”The dog was asked: Why do you bark? – To scare the wolves. – Why do you wag your tail? -What do you think, am I not afraid of wolves?
    7)”When three people say you are drunk, go to sleep.”
    8)”In a place without dogs they teach the cats to bark.” Quite applicable here.”

    • Oh GDP, the Georgians loathe the Russians with a white hot intensity, insulting the supporters of Russia is not only encouraged, it is expected.

      Try coming here to Tbilisi and spewing your pro Russian BS, see how long you last.

      I can introduce you to many Georgians that would like to educate you in the reality of Russia and its crimes in the Caucasus.

  24. Michel, as I (emphasis) have always argued I will not engage in a discussion with you for reasons explained. My point was to show you are a liar soemthing you made little attempt to deny but went on babbling about irrelevant issues as a cover up. Your own insistance which provoked me to repeat the accusations is the only thing “foolish” around here and of course your “inability” to add a few hundred $bn not my keeping to what I considered the point.Don’t confuse refusing with inability. That’s more like you than me.

    Is that a threat or a warning? Bringing the issue up again when (or in the event that) Russia’s reserves do run out is laughably what’s it like. I will again remind you- with the appropriate link(s)- that my point was that you manipulated facts and lied upon being confronted with evidence against your claims. You will also be reminded of your insistence upon irrelevant rants as a counterargument to my accusation.

    • Those who do not engage in discussion simply have nothing to say. You are much like those in power in the Kremlin. You do not want discussion, or debate, you simply want people to believe the propaganda unquestioningly. The fact of the matter is that in discussion, people do make mistakes, and are willing to admit mistakes, but it is through the process of debate that one can achieve truth (or some approximation of truth). You unwillingness to discuss or present your own ideas for fear of debate, demonstrates to me that you are incapable of reasoned debate and discussion, preferring the safety of blind belief. Sadly, this is also Russia’s Achilles’ Heel. Democracies are always stronger than totalitarian or wannabe totalitarian regimes because of debate (even if mistakes are sometimes made), because it is through debate that societies progress.

      • Michael, GDP is just a coward with verbal diarrhoea.

        Unfortunately your valid points are lost on people such as him/it

        • It is sad really that the best russophiles can do is to nitpick and whine. Says much about what they are trying to defend: given that Russia’s case as a great, democratic, free country does not stand on its own, they must obfuscate and detract in the hopes that nobody will notice the sad reality of what Russia is becoming and has become.

          • I agree it is sad, but not at all surprising.

            Morally bankrupt types such as GDP must always resort to such behaviour to defend the cesspool that is Russia and its political culture.

  25. “GDP, shen sheni deda movtrhan?”
    For those fortunate not to understand the above most polite phrase means “I ###### your mother” One should not be surprised by by “russophobes” like Andrew reverting to such respectful tactics towards their interlocutors when they have nothing to say. Of course there is another thing about this “compliment”, it is probably WRONG. The correct wording would be “Sheni deda movtkan, shen dedas shevetsi”. You see this shows Andrew asked his genuine (hahaha) Georgian in-laws.
    My responce on the other hand involves a number of georgian proverbs which I hope demonstrate Georgian wisdom towards fellows like Andrew but also constitute my attempt to maintain some dignity and civility on my behalf.

    • cadi sheni ruso goro. sainteresoa ra xasiatze dadgebi tvelcin 12 clis gogos rom gagiupatiureben? gisurveb agxdenodes!

      From my wife to you scumbag.

  26. Michel,
    1) I engaged in a discussion with you over at Robert Amsterdam’s blog some time ago, as my link shows. I was rational and unlike you honest. This resulted in me being confirmed by a third commentor and you -having been contradicted by this reader- gracefully backing down. I will not do it again as I know you will respomd with obfuscation, lies, half-truths and manipulation of facts as was demonstrated over at Robert Asterdam’s. I thinkwhat appears on the link says enough. Despite your hissy little lecture and democracy and debate, one can see from the link that you have little to do with what you advocate.
    2) Your insistence on me engaging in a discussion with you is a reversal of my insistance that you account for my accusations as claim that you are incredulous. It is a face-saving attempt to get out of you having to answer my accusations. It is also something like a sequel to your topic avoidance by means of rants about the russian economy.
    3) I am not whining or nitpicking.
    You are making a very fundamental mistake, I do not care to argue about these issues with you at least. I am interested in showing that your typical russophobe should not be taken seriously for certain reasons. What you are asking me to do is essentially get involved in discussing with every Tom, Dick and Harry who may be free to lie without even questioning his/her honesty or validity. Sorry but what you are asking is superficial, completely unitellectual and legitimizes the likes of you. For this reason I will not do this.

    Andrew

    “Michael, GDP is just a coward with verbal diarrhoea.”

    I’ve got to hand it to you, the phrasing was more amusing that yourself.

    “Unfortunately your valid points are lost on people such as him/it”

    Actually I think claiming Russia’ total reserves are fewer that the central bank’s forex reserves and insisting upon it until two commentors cite Bloomberg to prove you miserably wrong an invAlid point (or should I say an Invalid (‘s) point). But thenagain as linguist showed, you should not be trusted to judge what is valid and what isn’t.

    “Morally bankrupt types such as GDP must always resort to such behaviour to defend the cesspool that is Russia and its political culture.”

    That’s a joke considering it’s coming from one pretending to be a relative of war crimes victims and telling someone you ### their mother.

    “cadi sheni ruso goro. sainteresoa ra xasiatze dadgebi tvelcin 12 clis gogos rom gagiupatiureben? gisurveb agxdenodes!”

    Just to acknowledge your having posted something…..

    “From my wife to you scumbag.”

    Your attempts to prove your lame story are more pathetic than your attempts to establish a connection between Georgians and Basques (read: Europeans). Send her my best wishes when you meet her :)

    • GDP, given your infatuation with the Russian reserves, here are the words of Aleksei Mikhailov, a Russian economist writing in Gazeta.ru:

      “Резервный фонд большой, но при таких темпах его расходования, какие были в марте – мае, он закончится к ноябрю, его не хватит даже на этот год.”

      I know you are Russian, but to summarize for the others, if the Russian state continues to spend as it has been spending, the last of the reserves will be gone in November.

      At least Mikhailov is honest and intelligent enough to understand the danger that faces Russia. He asks:

      “Но вот вопрос: что мы будем делать осенью, если мировая экономика не перейдет к росту, цены на нефть вновь пойдут вниз, а Резервный фонд станет заканчиваться?”

      In other words, what will you do this fall if the world economy continues to shrink, if the price of oil once again starts to fall and and the reserve fund is near empty? The title of Mikhailov’s sums up best the strategy of the Russian Kremlin: Waiting for a Miracle.

      Yes, my numbers may have been a bit off, but my prognostics will still come to pass: the Russian reserves that you put so much faith in will run out in a year and Russia will be broke and facing an economic crisis with no money and few friends.

      In a few months, I will tell you that I told you so.

  27. Really GDP, what I said with “Shen sheni deda movtkran” was “do YOU f*** your mother?”

    Did you understand what my wife was saying to you in her message? Or is your “respect for the Georgian people” the same as shown by Russia last year, like new makeup of the same old Russian whore?

    The funniest one is your comment about disrespecting victims of war crimes by telling their stories in a public forum.

    Only a person completely lacking in empathy or morals could make an argument like that.

    Respect for the victims of war crimes involves making their suffering known. By your argument we cannot discuss Russian crimes in Chechnya, German crimes in the holocaust, Darfur, the recent massacres in Sri Lanka.

    Sorry GDP, but once again you show your lack of morals.

    Tell you what, tell us your email, and I will send you photo’s of me with my inlaws, and a tell you what happened to each of them.

    But I imagine a russophile like you will just get off on what your whore rodina has done to them and millions of other victims of Russian imperialism.

    Of course, you will also say they don’t exist, just like you claim Russia’s economic collapse is not occuring.

  28. BTW, your english is still fairly bad GDP, come on admit you are not a native english speaker.

    If you are you must be a grade school drop out.

  29. “In a few months, I will tell you that I told you so.”

    I’ll be waiting. I’ll again remind you I was not prepared to engage in a discussion with you and that you never answered my accusations of being untruthful. I might even dd vthe link where I was confirmed and you were contradicted and following vanished….

    Andrew
    “The funniest one is your comment about disrespecting victims of war crimes by telling their stories in a public forum.

    The only thing I find funny is you.

    “Really GDP, what I said with “Shen sheni deda movtkran” was “do YOU f*** your mother?” ”

    Apart from taking a few posts to come up with this (your “wife” was obviously away these last few days), let me ask you something. Does this make a significant difference? Does it make you look better.? Either way it is a vulgarity only to be found among the russophobes of the lowest intellect, minimal morality, respect and conversational skills. I must dmit, though, it is the “funniest one” so far.

    “Only a person completely lacking in empathy or morals could make an argument like that.”
    “Respect for the victims of war crimes involves making their suffering known. By your argument we cannot discuss Russian crimes in Chechnya, German crimes in the holocaust, Darfur, the recent massacres in Sri Lanka.
    Sorry GDP, but once again you show your lack of morals.”

    No, (once again) you do not understand. Of course, you are distorting what I said. It’s not that I don’t sympathize. Nor do I believe one shouldn’t talk about them. It’s that I object to your clowning around and using such stories as a means of making yourself look more credible. I do not object to their being made public but to their being used by every punk in a way that makes these stories look trivial.

  30. Really GDP, your lack of humanity (or should that be your subhumanity) is becoming increasingly obvious along with your hypocrisy.

    BTW, your english is still at the grade school drop out level.

  31. As for vulgarity, the most vulgar comments on this site, ranging from anti-semitic rants, personal insults and general racism are to be found in the posts of mindless Russians and Russophiles.

    The sooner Russians finish their self genocide through drugs and abortions the better off the world will be.

  32. “Really GDP, your lack of humanity (or should that be your subhumanity) is becoming increasingly obvious along with your hypocrisy.”

    Revelation comes to the simple with a delay. But only the ignorant understand the wrong things from what is revealed to them. For you have (yet!) to realize that it is not the plight of Georgians that I do not care about but your using/manipulating it as a credential. Sorry but finding your melodrama distasteful does not deprive me of the status of human. Clearly you lack any form of education in the humanities (or any academic field, as it is shown from the standard you have maintained throughout your pointless rants aiming to counterargue my original accusation) to be making such accusations. They are the sober equivalent of your insults when not in a state of irritation.
    But I do agree with you on my lack of subhumanity -in contrast to you.

    “BTW, your english is still at the grade school drop out level.”
    Who told you that? Your “wife”?
    BTW, what does that have to do with my accusations of you being too ignorant and deprived of intellectual imput to be taken seriously. CSuch points are just part of your attitude that confirms what I had to say.

    “As for vulgarity, the most vulgar comments on this site, ranging from anti-semitic rants, personal insults and general racism are to be found in the posts of mindless Russians and Russophiles.”

    Did I make any of those comments? Or was it perhaps a russophile that claimed to f### my mother, called my homeland a whore? The above comments were made by a rabid russophobe named Andrew.
    Your reference to what russophiles say has nothing to do with me and is merely a distraction and an attempt not to answer the point, and a lame one I might add.
    It should be noted however, that even these blokes tend to be more civil than Andrew as a rule.

    “The sooner Russians finish their self genocide through drugs and abortions the better off the world will be.”

    Apart from being a racist comment similar to those you accuse russophiles of, it is one of your many trivialities. The world will be better off once you, your “wife”, your lecturers and the likes grow up.

    P.S. An average Russian on drugs will still be more intelligent and rational than you, your “wife” and your lecturers and give a sane person less reason to wish somebody had had an abortion many years ago.

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