A note from the Translator: The dirty little rag we all love to hate, which is also the highest circulation newspaper in Russia – Order of Lenin, Order of the October Revolution, Order of the Great Patriotic War, Order of the Red Banner of Labour (and bar) Komsomolskaya Pravda, organ of the Central Committee of the All-Union Lenin Communist Union of Youth, to give it its full and absurd title – has published an amusing piece of rubbish which I think LR readers will enjoy. I fear I have recently been paying too much attention to the lone voices of good sense and intelligence that still survive in Russia, ignoring the great mass of rubbish (not my first choice of word, but we are respectable here) that is shovelled into the brains of the greater Russian public.
Komsomolka in this article makes use of a standard propaganda trick borrowed from the more pretentious levels of the tabloid press. The headline says one thing, which is then covered at length in the article, while as a PS the editors add a rejoinder to the text of the main article, allowing a defence of “balanced reporting” should anyone criticise (but who would, in Russia?). Since the readers of papers such as Komsomolka rarely get beyond the headline and a few lines of text, the propaganda work is done.
Those Russians who are bad have always had a problem distinguishing between what is true and what they would wish to be true. Our man Panarin, however, is beyond contest due first prize in these stakes! Komsomolskaya Pravda, for its part, is well placed for the Lying Propaganda Toad of the Year award – but then, that was always the purpose of the Komsomol.
As the economic crisis deepens in the USA, Russia is drawn once again to consider the sensational theory put forward by Russian Professor Igor Panarin.
“The USA will collapse within the year, as happened with the USSR.”
–Igor Panarin, Dean of the Faculty of International Relations of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation:
[TN – this man, who as you will see below is so out of touch that he sounds like he’s from from another planet, which is kinder than saying he is stark raving bonkers, and his graduates actually advise foreign minister Lavrov, for gawd’s sake!!!]
He predicted that the USA would soon fall apart and that Alaska would be returned to Russia. Is this a weird fiction?
“I first proposed this theory back in 1998, when the USA was at the peak of its power. I pointed out that the country had numerous internal problems and realised that the United States could be racked by a systemic crisis. By my calculations, it was going to happen in 2010. That’s when I drew up my map of the collapsed USA, in which there would be:
- the Californian Republic, either as part of China or under its influence;
- the Central North American Republic, under the control of Canada;
- Atlantic America, which might join the EU;
- Alaska, which would return to Russia;
- Hawaii, which would be taken over by either China or Japan.
Each of these regions has its own kind of economy. For example, the Texas region is fuel and energy oriented, New York and New England in general are a financial centre, while the Pacific Coast is a high tech zone.”
WHAT WILL PULL THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER AMERICA’S FEET
Reason #1 why America will collapse is the moral and psychological crisis through which the country is going: constant outbreaks of violence, all those school shootings. American society is built around strict controls, finely tuned yet more all-encompassing that in the former USSR. This puts people under colossal psychological pressure, leading to outbursts that end in tragedy, as we are seeing with ever increasing frequency.
Add to this tensions between various ethnic groups. One American wrote to me that he had had to move away from California because it was getting difficult for whites to live there. He asserted that 150 thousand white Americans had left the state last year alone.
Reason #2 is financial and economic. Back in the early 1980s, the USA’s foreign debt was nil [TN: actually $.75 trillion in 1981 by why should facts get in the way? See note]. By 1998, it amounted to $2 trillion [TN: actually a budget surplus of $69.3 billion in 1998, but I must stop interrupting!] and it has risen to date to $14 trillion. In just 30 years, the USA has changed from being the world’s largest creditor to the world’s largest debtor. Irreversibly, I would say. The USA’s budget deficit is $1.8 trillion. Three major banks went bankrupt in 2007, twenty-five in 2008, and 2009 has already seen 20 bankruptcies in the first two months of the year. Another 252 problem banks are on the verge.
Reason #3 is the legislative disintegration of the USA. Eight US states have declared state sovereignty, 7 of them in February 2009. The issue is being considered in the legislative assemblies of another twelve. What we are seeing here is the gradual transformation of the USA into a confederative state. The latest event in this series happened on 9 March when famous actor Chuck Norris announced his candidacy for president of the independent state… of Texas. His arguments are that America is morally degrading, Washington bureaucracy, embezzlement by federal officials. [TN: author’s sentence construction retained. Also see note 3.]
When I first publicised that Russia retained rights on this territory, I was showered with criticisms because “everyone knows that Alaska was sold”. However, none of my critics could produce a single document or reference to a document confirming the sale. [TN: took me 30 seconds via Google/Wikipedia to find text of Alaska Purchase treaty, see below]. There is a version of the event that says that Alaska was leased for 99 years but that back in the 1960s, when the term ran out, the USSR’s ideology did not permit asking for it back.
Maybe documents will be produced to show that Alaska was sold and explain where the money was paid. I believe that a joint Russian-American commission should be established to look into the matter. We need to dig into the archives of the Central Committee of the CPSU and into American archives as they ust surely contain traces of this “deal of the century”.
OBAMA IS AMERICA’S GORBACHEV
As I see it, Obama is the new Gorbachev. The collapse of Wall Street, of the largest insurer, the critical state of the automotive industry, the millions threatened with unemployment – and against that background to say that the position of the dollar is stronger than ever? What a joke!
The very fact that Obama met with Gorbachev shows how inadequate the American president’s advisers are. Even the BBC, a week before their meeting, commented that “Gorbachev advised Obama that he go for perestroika, but Gorbachev’s policies ended with the collapse of the USSR”. But the two met nonetheless.
Obama spent six months criticising the Bush administration’s plan for dealing with the crisis but has now reproduced it almost in its entirety, except for asking for even more money.
I said back in November last year that “Obamamania” would end, and that the end would be a bad one. And look, Obama’s rating was 84% in January. In March, it dropped to 56%. And another sad thing: in a March Gallup poll, 83% of Americans said that the steps being taken by Obama and his team would make the situation worse. [TN: I can only assume that Panarin uses the polling organisation favoured by UK satyrical magazine Private Eye. Gnomepolls’ slogan is “You tell us the answer and we’ll find the questions.”]
As of today, 43 out of 50 states are in receipt of central funding and Puerto Rico has declared itself bankrupt.
THE YEAR 2010
The USA has already passed the turning point, which was the collapse of Wall Street in September 2008. The second blow was the death of the American dream. For decades, they were told: get a credit, buy a house, a car, work, and everything will be grand. But that system is collapsing today. In the USSR, we were unable to bring Marxism-Leninism up to date. It took Gorbachev 5 years to lead to the country to its collapse. In America, it won’t take that long.
The financial year ends on 30 September. The results will be catastrophic for America. Regional separatism will be the order of the day. Splits in the Democratic and Republican Parties may occur.
I think that in November the dollar will crash and the socio-economic situation if the United States will weaken sharply. This will be the dawn of the age of regional leaders who will hark back to the days of an independent Texas, of the Vermont Republic and other such formations. Then the future of the USA will depend on new Lenins and Trotskys and even on what the country’s armed forces choose to do. I would not exclude an attempt to take matters in hand as per the Russia 1991 scenario. Preparations are already under way: a rapid reaction force of six thousand men (due to rise to twenty thousand) has been created. Camps for “unreliable elements” have been set up. Several million body bags have been stockpiled near Atlanta.
Whether and if the army will be able to suppress the sovereignty march remains an open question. When the National Guard was brought into New Orleans after the flood, it was unable to return the city to normality after 3 years. And it is to going to be withdrawn after 1 July due to lack of funds to keep them there.
WHAT’S IN THIS FOR RUSSIA AND WHAT SHOULD RUSSIA DO?
Our main task is to make clear what our zone of interest is: the CIS, Mongolia, Eastern Europe, and Alaska. And we should work to integrate this zone economically.
While the USA is on its way to rack and ruin, Russia should take a maximally neutral stance and not interfere in that country’s internal problems. And in exchange for our neutrality, we should demand that the USA cease its displays of hostility to us, such as its deployment of anti-missile shields in Eastern Europe or its interference in inter-CIS relations.
This is what I. Panarin told Komsomolka on a previous occasion:
“Kazsat, a satellite put into space by a Moslem country, was blessed by Father Sergei, the vicar of Baikonur’s orthodox church. Rosaviakosmos press secretary Igor Panarin told us that immediately after the service, the electromagnetic conditions at the launch site improved suddenly. The press secretary also told us that he had himself been to the church the day before and lit candles.” (from KP, 19.06.2006).
FROM KP’s DATABASE
Igor Nikolayevich Panarin was born in 1958. Graduate of the KGB USSR Military Communications College in the town of Orlov and of the Dept. of Psychology of the Military-Political Academy. PhD in political science. Full member of the RF Academy of Military Science. In 2001-2004, head of the analysis department of the RF Central Elections Committee. In 2005-2007, press secretary of Roskosmos. Currently a professor, Dean of the Faculty of International Relations of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
Sergei Rogov, Director of the Institute of the USA and Canada: “This is not science but rather astrology.”
“The United States is indeed experiencing a very serious systemic crisis. This is linked to the collapse of the neoliberal economic model, Reaganomics as they call it in America. It is also linked to the overextension of America’s armed forces involved as they are in lengthy wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s the failure of the idea of a unipolar world with the United States as sole superpower. The crisis will also bring about serious changes in the USA. It’s no coincidence that the president’s chair is now occupied by a person like Barack Obama, who faces the task of accommodating American strategy to the realities of a multipolar world and instigating serious economic reforms. We can see how Obama’s programme of economic change is already having an affect on Russo-American relations, with his administration striving to reach agreement with Russia on key issues of international security.
With all this in the air, mooting the crash of the dollar and civil war is not scientific analysis but sensation seeking. Scientific analysis and self-advertising ideologically charged propaganda are two very different things in the same way as there is astronomy and astrology.
1.Alaska Purchase: courtesy Wikipedia, here is copy of the cheque used to pay for Alaska:
Text of Treaty, see Library of Congress
3. Chuck Norris facts. I like: “If you have five dollars and Chuck Norris has five dollars, Chuck Norris has more money than you.”