Daily Archives: October 5, 2007

October 5, 2007 — Contents

FRIDAY OCTOBER 5 CONTENTS

(1) Editorial: Annals of Russian Militarism

(2) The WSJ Rips Putin a New One

(3) The Secret to Putin’s “Popularity” Revealed

(4) The Nightmare of Putin’s Permanent Rule

(5) Bovt on the Neo-Soviet Mindset

(6) Once Again, Russia Convicted in the ECHR Over Chechnya

NOTE: Regular content publication is suspended after today until Tuesday morning, October 9th. Tomorrow, our special tribute edition to Anna Politkovskaya will appear, and will remain at the head of the blog through Monday, October 8th (Columbus Day in the USA). Sunday, October 7th, is the one-year anniversary of Anna’s cowardly murder.

NOTE: Radio Free Europe commemorates Politkovskaya here. Yesterday we listed a bunch of related events in the U.S., U.K. and Belgium. If you know of others, do post them as comments or forward e-mail.

EDITORIAL: Annals of Russian Militarism

EDITORIAL

Annals of Russian Militarism

Seemingly with great pride, Pravda reports that Russia is second only to the United States in the dollar value of weapons its exports to the world, selling $8.7 billion compared to America’s $16.9 billion. That’s a pretty far distant second, to be sure, but Russians seem delighted to settle for silver medals (something similar happens during the Olympic games, for instance).

What Pravda fails to notice, however, is that the U.S. economy is twelve times larger than Russia’s, while the U.S. sales of arms are only twice as large. This means that the sale of arms to foreign nations represents a six times larger share of the Russian economy than it does of the American economy.

In other words, Russia is dominating America in arms sales as a percent of GDP. In other other words, Russia is shockingly addicted to the sale of arms just as it’s addicted to the sale of oil.

And it doesn’t care who it sells to, or how many enemies it makes along the way. Euphemistically, Pravda admits that Russia’s client list is far smaller and less diverse than America’s, but it gives no details. Here’s the truth: In a frenzied, short-sighted, neo-Soviet manner, Russia is funneling huge quantities of weapons to a tiny group of rogue nations who can’t get them anywhere else (Burma, Iran, Venezuela, Syria) and are therefore willing to accept Russia’s shoddy work product. These nations are among America’s most mortal enemies yet, if America were to start delivering huge quantities of weapons to Georgia or Ukraine, for instance, Russia would scream to high heaven about America threatening Russian security. In fact, Russia isn’t even willing to allow the U.S. to install purely defensive missile systems in Eastern Europe, even though Russia is installing exactly the same type of system in Iran (to protect nuclear technology Russia has also delivered to that crazed fundamentalist regime). And let’s not forget the repeated buzzing of Western nations by Russian nuclear bomber flybys — when no such threats are being made by the West against Russia.

Is it really in the long-term interests of the Russian people to pursue this policy? Of course not. Russia finds itself utterly alone in the world, faced with the inevitable annexation of territory by China in Siberia, yet it proceeds recklessly to antagonize the entire Western world by selling arms to its most hated foes. In doing so, Russia inevitably invites a second cold war, just like the one that totally destroyed the USSR. Inevitably, to wage such a war, Russia must divert resources from social services to military goals, and Russia’s sick population can ill afford any such losses.

And let’s remember, the people of Russia are not innocent bystanders in this process; they are as culpable as their leaders because they continue to favor those leaders with astronomically high approval ratings in polls and elections. There was a time when we might have let the people of Russia off the hook, attributing the barbaric acts of their government to the lunatics who ran that government, a dictatorship we thought the Russians could not control. But now, things have changed mightily. Now, we see the people of Russia exercising a free choice to continue harassing the West, provoking a conflict they are doomed to lose.

Russia’s is a bully regime, and bullies inevitably resort to crude acts of criminal violence to get what they want, because they can’t win civilized contests. If the Russian people don’t wake up and stop this madness, we will soon be discussing the nation that replaced Russia, just as Russia replaced the USSR.

It might be a nation that speaks Chinese.

The WSJ Rips Putin a New One

The Wall Street Journal reports facts that LR has been predicting for more than a year now. We have become conventional wisdom.

Vladimir Putin has announced that he will remain active in Russian politics, probably as prime minister, after his second presidential term expires next year. The sorry news in this is that it surprises no one.

It has now been eight years since the world first learned of Mr. Putin, a KGB man vaulted almost overnight from municipal obscurity into the presidency by an ailing Boris Yeltsin. Mr. Putin made his political mark by initiating a second war against the breakaway province of Chechnya, using the pretext of a series of alleged terrorist bombings in Russia. According to Alexander Litvinenko, the one-time spy who became an opponent of the Putin regime before his murder last year, these bombings were orchestrated by the Russian secret services.

By January 2000, the Chechen capital of Grozny resembled Dresden in 1945. Yet Western leaders did not turn away from Mr. Putin. On the contrary, they feted him as an “flawless democrat” (Gerhard Schröeder) and a man “deeply committed [to the] best interests of his country” (President Bush). He has been helped by the tripling of oil prices, a gift in part of Alan Greenspan’s easy money Federal Reserve policy.

The petrorubles have allowed Mr. Putin to service Russia’s debts, build up its foreign-currency reserves, pay its miners, soldiers and civil servants, and turn Moscow and St. Petersburg into showcase cities; his job approval rating is near 70%. They have also helped obscure his policy of repression in the Caucasus, his attacks on independent media and domestic human rights organizations, and his appointment of KGB cronies to key positions of power.

More difficult for the world to overlook has been Mr. Putin’s meddling in the politics of Russia’s neighbors: the oil and gas pipelines turned off in the dead of winter; the effort to steal Ukraine’s 2004 election; the 2006 embargo imposed on tiny Georgia; this year’s cyberwar against Estonia. The murder a year ago of crusading journalist Anna Politkovskaya and the polonium poisoning of Mr. Litvinenko were notable for the studied indifference they inspired in the Russian government. Mr. Putin eulogized Ms. Politkovskaya with the remark that her influence “was minimal.”

All of this has coincided with an increasingly assertive Russian foreign policy that often seeks to undermine U.S. interests. Most notably, a Russian veto threat continues to limit U.N. sanctions designed to stop Iran’s nuclear program. Mr. Bush’s restraint in criticizing Mr. Putin’s domestic crackdown has been partly in the service of winning the Russian’s cooperation on Iran–to little effect.

Given this career arc, it comes as no surprise that Mr. Putin now seeks to hold on to power, despite his previous Julius Caesar-like avowals to the contrary, and despite a constitutional limitation on remaining president for more than two successive terms. Coming on the heels of his surprise appointment of aging apparatchik Viktor Zubkov as prime minister, it seems Mr. Putin intends either to rule Russia from his parliamentary office or, using a constitutional loophole, perhaps return to the presidency after a decent interval.

No doubt Mr. Putin will get away with this, given his control over the media and other levers of power. But he will still have to observe the formalities of a presidential election next year, and former chess champion Garry Kasparov has said he intends to lead the political opposition. The West needs to put Mr. Putin on notice that if Mr. Kasparov suffers some “accident”–if, say, he is hit by a car–the world will not look the other way.

Bill Clinton made the mistake of welcoming Mr. Putin into the G-8, and Western leaders lack the will to expel him now. But his current maneuvering to retain power should make clear beyond doubt that Mr. Putin has ransacked the hopes the world once had for post-Soviet Russian democracy. He is reviving Russian authoritarianism, and the world’s democracies need to prepare for its consequences.

The Secret to Putin’s "Popularity" Revealed: He Simply Kills his Critics

Writing in The Age, Associate Professor Judith Armstrong, a fellow of the Contemporary Europe Research Centre, and former head of the Russian department at the University of Melbourne, explains how easy it is to be popular if you are willing to kill all your critics.

Russians call for change to the country’s political system at their peril, writes Judith Armstrong.

THIS week could have heralded a significant month in Russia. According to the country’s own law, October 2 might have been the day for the release of former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who has been in jail since fraudulent allegations were led against him by the Russian Government in 2003.

Russian law allows for parole after half a sentence has been served, but in Khodorkovsky’s case, new charges have been laid ensuring that this will not happen. The new trial is expected to be held up until after the parliamentary elections in December and the presidential elections in March, but Vladimir Putin’s announcement that he might take over the prime ministership ensures that little will change.

Canadian international human rights lawyer Robert Amsterdam, in Sydney during APEC to warn against the potential use of Australian uranium for military purposes, or its onwards sale to countries such as Iran, remains one of Khodorkovsky’s defence team despite being arrested in Moscow and summarily expelled from the country.

He remains convinced of his client’s innocence, even though the reputation of the oligarchs, most of whom are now dispersed, may not be totally edifying. They were regarded by the Russian people as rapacious, self-serving and overweeningly successful; from the Government’s point of view, they were just too powerful and independent.

Tony Jones, interviewing Amsterdam on Lateline in June this year, twice used the words “robber baron” of the former oil magnate, as though this said it all. But Khodorkovsky’s extraordinary career, ranging from everyday origins to chief executive of the second-biggest oil company in the world, is predicated on factors the West can hardly imagine: things such as the psychology of moral and political formation under a totalitarian system, the challenges inherent in setting up almost from the beginning a democratic rule of law, and the embryonic ethics of business development and profit-making in an incipient market society.

In the early 1990s, many astute young Russians were able to amass money, assets and unforeseen power through their business acumen and ability to serve the new political elite. They did not need to break any laws to soar through the Soviet ceiling for the simple reason that business codes, let alone ethics, barely existed at the time; it was more useful for Khodorkovsky to study the political system and work it from the inside.

He acquired his first wealth by importing jeans, brandy and computers, allegedly laundering some of the profits through the Russian mafia. Not only did the then president and former KGB chief Yuri Andropov turn a blind eye to his and his comrades’ activities, some commentators claim that KGB protection was readily available for new private businessmen opening up a market, black or grey.

Within a short time, Khodorkovsky and a group of like-minded individuals had started one of the first private banks, Menatep, one of whose operations was the transfer of payments to Chernobyl victims. By 1997 Khodorkovsky was the owner of Yukos, Russia’s second-biggest oil company, bought from the Government four years before when it was running at a huge loss. Under his management, the value of Yukos shot up to $US6.8 billion.

It would go even higher after 1999, the year that Khodorkovsky consciously elected not to break any accepted ethical principle — a different matter from working within Russian law. His decision may have been prompted by the realisation that Russian methods were not acceptable to the West, but that likelihood does not rule out the possibility of a genuine moral turnaround. He began to support educational initiatives, encourage legal aid groups, and fund non-partisan think tanks, making no secret of his desire to promote democracy and civil society. He expressed his preference for a constitution that would grant more power to the parliament and less to the president, and a multi-party system rather than Putin’s centralised government. In the early 2000s, he poured money into the liberal causes he championed, including the Russian Booker Prize.

In October 2003, he was suddenly arrested and imprisoned; when he came to trial two years later, it was to face trumped-up charges and six further years in a remote Siberian prison. Last December and early this year, more charges were produced, preventing any possibility of parole. The new accusations have been described by The Washington Post as “magnificently implausible”, but they serve the Government’s purpose of freezing and taking over Yukos’ remaining assets, which are still considerable. No wonder the White Paper written by Amsterdam and his law partner is entitled The Abuse of State Authority in the Russian Federation, or that he used his visit to Australia last month to highlight the plight of his client as well as the dangers of selling uranium to an unpredictable buyer.

The Secret to Putin’s "Popularity" Revealed: He Simply Kills his Critics

Writing in The Age, Associate Professor Judith Armstrong, a fellow of the Contemporary Europe Research Centre, and former head of the Russian department at the University of Melbourne, explains how easy it is to be popular if you are willing to kill all your critics.

Russians call for change to the country’s political system at their peril, writes Judith Armstrong.

THIS week could have heralded a significant month in Russia. According to the country’s own law, October 2 might have been the day for the release of former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who has been in jail since fraudulent allegations were led against him by the Russian Government in 2003.

Russian law allows for parole after half a sentence has been served, but in Khodorkovsky’s case, new charges have been laid ensuring that this will not happen. The new trial is expected to be held up until after the parliamentary elections in December and the presidential elections in March, but Vladimir Putin’s announcement that he might take over the prime ministership ensures that little will change.

Canadian international human rights lawyer Robert Amsterdam, in Sydney during APEC to warn against the potential use of Australian uranium for military purposes, or its onwards sale to countries such as Iran, remains one of Khodorkovsky’s defence team despite being arrested in Moscow and summarily expelled from the country.

He remains convinced of his client’s innocence, even though the reputation of the oligarchs, most of whom are now dispersed, may not be totally edifying. They were regarded by the Russian people as rapacious, self-serving and overweeningly successful; from the Government’s point of view, they were just too powerful and independent.

Tony Jones, interviewing Amsterdam on Lateline in June this year, twice used the words “robber baron” of the former oil magnate, as though this said it all. But Khodorkovsky’s extraordinary career, ranging from everyday origins to chief executive of the second-biggest oil company in the world, is predicated on factors the West can hardly imagine: things such as the psychology of moral and political formation under a totalitarian system, the challenges inherent in setting up almost from the beginning a democratic rule of law, and the embryonic ethics of business development and profit-making in an incipient market society.

In the early 1990s, many astute young Russians were able to amass money, assets and unforeseen power through their business acumen and ability to serve the new political elite. They did not need to break any laws to soar through the Soviet ceiling for the simple reason that business codes, let alone ethics, barely existed at the time; it was more useful for Khodorkovsky to study the political system and work it from the inside.

He acquired his first wealth by importing jeans, brandy and computers, allegedly laundering some of the profits through the Russian mafia. Not only did the then president and former KGB chief Yuri Andropov turn a blind eye to his and his comrades’ activities, some commentators claim that KGB protection was readily available for new private businessmen opening up a market, black or grey.

Within a short time, Khodorkovsky and a group of like-minded individuals had started one of the first private banks, Menatep, one of whose operations was the transfer of payments to Chernobyl victims. By 1997 Khodorkovsky was the owner of Yukos, Russia’s second-biggest oil company, bought from the Government four years before when it was running at a huge loss. Under his management, the value of Yukos shot up to $US6.8 billion.

It would go even higher after 1999, the year that Khodorkovsky consciously elected not to break any accepted ethical principle — a different matter from working within Russian law. His decision may have been prompted by the realisation that Russian methods were not acceptable to the West, but that likelihood does not rule out the possibility of a genuine moral turnaround. He began to support educational initiatives, encourage legal aid groups, and fund non-partisan think tanks, making no secret of his desire to promote democracy and civil society. He expressed his preference for a constitution that would grant more power to the parliament and less to the president, and a multi-party system rather than Putin’s centralised government. In the early 2000s, he poured money into the liberal causes he championed, including the Russian Booker Prize.

In October 2003, he was suddenly arrested and imprisoned; when he came to trial two years later, it was to face trumped-up charges and six further years in a remote Siberian prison. Last December and early this year, more charges were produced, preventing any possibility of parole. The new accusations have been described by The Washington Post as “magnificently implausible”, but they serve the Government’s purpose of freezing and taking over Yukos’ remaining assets, which are still considerable. No wonder the White Paper written by Amsterdam and his law partner is entitled The Abuse of State Authority in the Russian Federation, or that he used his visit to Australia last month to highlight the plight of his client as well as the dangers of selling uranium to an unpredictable buyer.

The Nigthmare of Putin’s Permanent Rule

The Moscow Times reports:

Human rights are likely to suffer if President Vladimir Putin cements his grip on power by becoming prime minister next year, activists told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday. If Putin takes the position, it would represent a shift back to a single-party Soviet system, the activists said at the news conference, commemorating the murder of journalist Anna Politkovskaya on Oct. 7 last year. “With Putin’s announcement … the presidential elections lost whatever meaning they could have possibly had,” said Tanya Lokshina, of the rights group Demos, referring to the March vote. “The Russian Federation will not vote for a president, it will vote for an assistant to Mr. Putin who will remain the boss,” she said. “The negative tendencies that we have witnessed over the years of Putin’s rule are only going to be reinforced.”

Putin agreed at a United Russia conference Monday to head its federal list in State Duma elections in December and said he might become prime minister — the clearest signal yet about how he might hold on to power after stepping down as president. Oleg Orlov, leader of Memorial, said that if Putin were to become prime minister, it would mark an effective shift back toward the one-party system. “Formally speaking, we will certainly have several parties in the parliament, but in fact we now have a center of power within one single party, that is the United Russia,” he said. “Now it appears that we are turning back to something that is strikingly reminiscent of our Communist Soviet past.”

Lokshina said none of the three men seen as Putin’s preferred candidates to succeed him — First Deputy Prime Ministers Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov and Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov — could be described as sympathetic toward human rights. Speaking at the same briefing, Western rights groups Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and the International Federation for Human Rights urged the European Union to be more consistent and transparent in promoting rights in Russia. A spokeswoman for the EU’s executive commission declined to comment on the possibility of Putin being a prime ministerial candidate but said Brussels had stressed to Moscow the hope that the Duma elections would be held in an atmosphere that would allow full participation by all political parties.

The EU side has also expressed hope that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe will be permitted to monitor the voting, said the spokeswoman, Christiana Hohmann.

In Moscow, meanwhile, about 5,000 pro-Kremlin youth rallied on Manezh Square in support of “Putin’s Plan” — United Russia’s platform for the Duma elections approved at the party’s conference this week. The youth rally, called “Everything Is Going to Plan,” kicked off election campaigning by pro-Putin youth organizations Nashi and Young Guard.

Bovt: The More Things Change in Russia, the More they Stay the Same

Writing in the Moscow Times, Georgy Bovt explains how little Russia’s mindset has changed since Soviet times:

Russia’s political elite has failed to develop a new, modern style for governing. When observing, for example, how our leaders speak with the public and make decisions, it reminds me so much of the Soviet way of doing things.

For example, nomenclatural arrogance is alive and well. Russian leaders still sees themselves as standing far above the people. Even if they wade into a crowd to have a “casual chat” with the people, it often takes the form of gods descending from the heavens to speak with simple mortals. And even if they graciously ask one of the mortals about his life, his household and how much he is earning, he still comes across as an alien who has landed on an unfamiliar planet.

When Russian leaders goes out to meet the people, they are almost constantly issuing instructions and commands that their servile assistants jot down on their notepads. Incidentally, the habit of needlessly recording a leader’s words on notepads is also a holdover from Soviet times. I remember how nearly every one of the thousands of delegates who gathered for huge Communist Party congresses diligently recorded a summary of the leaders’ speeches on little notepads — even though the scripts of the speeches, which were published the next day in many newspapers, were easily accessible.

Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov’s visit to Penza last week received extensive media coverage, especially when he issued a series of direct orders that were all delivered with that style so characteristic of former Soviet leaders. For example, having learned suddenly from discussions with local workers that kindergarten teachers earn just 3,500 rubles ($140) per month, he ordered the governor of Penza to raise salaries immediately. Whether Zubkov would be able to order salary increases for all of the teachers outside of Penza was not addressed.

Zubkov also listened closely to the complaints of managers of a local paper factory that VTB, the large state-controlled bank, did not follow through on its promise to extend credit at 14 percent interest rate. This left the factory no other choice but to borrow from a Czech bank at 4.5 percent. Several days later in a Cabinet meeting, Zubkov decried this phenomenon as a “disgrace,” and he issued an order to Russian banks to start providing “affordable credit” to Russian manufacturers.

The new prime minister particularly shines when — with a stern and menacing voice — he sends various Moscow officials out to the provinces to “figure out what is going on” and to solve all of the local problems.

Of course, all of this lacks common sense. Even a schoolchild knows that any bank issuing credit at 4.5 percent would not be sustainable without government subsidies, given this country’s high inflation rate. Also, raising salaries for teachers in one region without addressing the salaries of all state employees is absurd. Equally absurd were the official orders to develop Russia’s nanotechnology industry — a sphere that is, by definition, requires innovation, which can blossom only when there are favorable economic conditions — and freedom! Orders from bureaucrats for these types of development projects are not only meaningless, they are counterproductive. In a market economy, investment flows naturally into sectors where profits can be made and not where directed by bureaucratic decree.

Does the current leadership not understand that the Soviet approach was proven ineffective long ago?

We are now witnessing a mass reversion to the Soviet style of management and governing, and Zubkov’s appointment as prime minister only strengthens this trend. It seems that the current election campaign will also be conducted in the best of Soviet traditions. President Vladimir Putin’s decision to head the United Russia ticket confirms this. But we will …

On the other hand, all of this will be amusing to watch. After all, we know that when history repeats itself, it does so in the form of a farce.